AFI Top 10: American Film Institute has stellar track record predicting Oscar Best Picture nominations

On Tuesday (Dec. 4), the American Film Institute will release its list of the top 10 homegrown films of 2018. The AFI has a strong track record at previewing the Best Picture line-up at the Oscars. Since the academy expanded that category in 2010, the AFI has previewed 66 of the 73 nominees that were American-made; that translates into a staggering 90% success rate.

The AFI missed these seven domestic productions that went on to make the cut with the academy:

2010: “Avatar” and “Inglourious Basterds”
2014: “Dallas Buyers Club”
2015: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
2016 : “The Revenant”
2017: “Hidden Figures”
2018: “Phantom Thread”

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The AFI does not honor foreign-made films and eight of them have reaped Best Picture bids at the Academy Awards in the last nine years. Two of these — “The King’s Speech” (2011) and “The Artist” (2012) — won the top prize. The other six imports that impressed academy members were:

2013: “Amour”
2014: “Philomena”
2015: “The Theory of Everything”
2016: “Brooklyn”
2017: “Lion”
2018: “Darkest Hour”

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The AFI jury is comprised of scholars, film and television artists, critics and AFI Trustees. Members consider the following criteria when determining the honor roll of 10 American films:

Best advance the art of the moving image;
enhance the rich cultural heritage of America’s art form;
inspire audiences and artists alike; and
make a mark on American society.

PREDICT Oscar nominations now; change them till Jan. 22

Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 22.

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