American Society of Cinematographers will continue love affair with Roger Deakins (‘Blade Runner 2049’), but will Oscars finally follow suit?

On Febrruary 17 the American Society of Cinematographers will hand out prizes to the best lensers in film and television for the 32nd year. Roger Deakins is heavily favored to win for his work on the feature film “Blade Runner 2049,” but this wouldn’t be an overdue victory — far from it. Deakins has been awarded by the ASC 3 times before out of 14 previous nominations. However, he has never been able to translate that success to the Oscars, where he has lost all 13 of his previous bids. Will this finally be the year the motion picture academy makes it up to him?

Deakins won the ASC Award for “The Shawkshank Redemption” (1994), “The Man Who Wasn’t There” (2001) and “Skyfall” (2012). That makes him the guild’s third biggest winner behind Emmanuel Lubezki (five wins) and Conrad L. Hall (four wins). But while Lubezki and Hall also won three Oscars apiece, Deakins wasn’t awarded by the academy for any of his ASC winning efforts. In fact, only 13 of the 31 previous ASC winners (42%) went on to win the Oscar.

So will the fourth time be the charm for Deakins? As of this writing Deakins gets leading odds of 1/5 to win the ASC Award. Those are based on the combined predictions of hundreds of users who have made their picks at Gold Derby, including five Expert journalists we’ve polled from top media outlets, who are unanimous that Deakins will prevail: Edward Douglas, Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Anne Thompson (IndieWire) and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone). Our six Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby are also in complete agreement: Chris Beachum, Eng, Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria, Paul Sheehan and myself.

But Deakins isn’t necessarily a lock here. While he has support from 18 of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s ASC winners, 6 of them think he will be upset by Hoyte van Hoytema for “Dunkirk,” and so do 3 of our All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ predictions. And one of our All-Stars thinks Rachel Morrison will pull off an upset for “Mudbound“; she’s the first woman ever nominated for this ASC Award and the first ever nominated for Best Cinematography at the Oscars.

Deakins is also currently the front-runner to win the Oscar with 4/7 odds. Do you agree that this is finally his year, or will the academy let him down for the 14th time?

Be sure to make your ASC predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name filmmakers can see how their movies are faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on February 17. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 ASC Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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