2018 BAFTA Awards: Does Sally Hawkins (‘The Shape of Water’) have home-field advantage over Frances McDormand (‘Three Billboards’)?

After Sally Hawkins dominated the critics circuit, the tide has turned with the televised awards. The “Shape of Water” star lost the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice and Screen Actors Guild Awards to Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), but she could exact revenge on her home turf at the BAFTAs.

Though they usually go with the frontrunners, every now and then the BAFTAs hand a win to a British native or British–reared star. Just last year, Dev Patel (“Lion”) won Best Supporting Actor over eventual Oscar winner Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”). Eight years ago, Colin Firth (“A Single Man”) interrupted Jeff Bridges’ Best Actor sweep for “Crazy Heart.” That same year, Carey Mulligan (“An Education”) won Best Actress, albeit eventual Oscar champ Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”) wasn’t eligible, but voters opted for British pride over Meryl Streep (“Julie & Julia”).

SEE 2018 BAFTA Awards: See the full list of nominations

McDormand herself was victim to BAFTA’s home-field advantage 21 years ago. Her Oscar-winning performance in “Fargo” fell to Brenda Blethyn’s in “Secrets & Lies.” This was also back when the BAFTAs were held a month after the Oscars.

Will it be déjà vu for McDormand? She still leads our predictions with 1/4 combined odds, but Hawkins is hot on her heels with 7/1 odds. Saoirse Ronan (“Lady Bird”), who’s of course Irish, is third with 18/1 odds, followed by Margot Robbie (“I, Tonya”) with 66/1 odds and Annette Bening (“Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool”) with 100/1 odds. Neither McDormand nor Hawkins has won a BAFTA before either, and both of their films did very well with nominations, with “Three Billboards” nabbing nine to “The Shape of Water”’s 12.

Do you think Hawkins has a British edge at the BAFTAs?

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