2018 BAFTAs: Which acting favorite is most vulnerable to an upset? [POLL]

Sunday’s BAFTA Awards mark the fourth leg of Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”), Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”) and Sam Rockwell’s (“Three Billboards”) quest to be the first group of acting winners to sweep all five televised awards. But BAFTA might be tricky for all four of them to pull off.

Since BAFTA moved up its ceremony before the Oscars 17 years ago, it sometimes moves in lockstep with the precursors and rubberstamp Oscar frontrunners. Other times BAFTA, whose lineups don’t always match the Oscars’, marches to the beat of its own drum and anoint one of its own British stars or offer some clarity to an unsettled race — its supporting winners Tilda Swinton (2007’s “Michael Clayton”) and Mark Rylance (2015’s “Bridge of Spies”) went on to claim Oscars.

SEE 2018 Oscars: Will all four acting winners pull off an unprecedented sweep?

McDormand, Oldman, Janney and Rockwell all look strong right now… or are they?

McDormand has 1/4 odds to win Best Actress, according to our latest predictions. She’s ahead of “The Shape of Water”s Sally Hawkins (6/1 odds), “Lady Bird”’s Saoirse Ronan (25/1 odds), “I, Tonya”’s Margot Robbie (66/1 odds) and “Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool”’s Annette Bening (100/1 odds). Only Bening is not Oscar-nominated, replaced by Meryl Streep (“The Post”) in the lineup. Hawkins is in third in our Oscar odds, behind McDormand and Ronan, but her British roots and being part of the most nominated film (“Shape” has 12) could help her here. Neither McDormand nor Hawkins have won a BAFTA.

Oldman has a commanding 1/10-odd lead to take Best Actor over “Call Me by Your Name”’s Timothee Chalamet (22/1 odds), “Phantom Thread”’s Daniel Day-Lewis (40/1 odds), “Get Out”’s Daniel Kaluuya (66/1 odds) and “Film Stars”’ Jamie Bell (100/1 odds). Denzel Washington (“Roman J. Israel, Esq.”), who has never been nominated by BAFTA, took Bell’s spot in the Oscar five. It may seem impossible for Oldman, who has two BAFTAs for Best British Film and Best Original Screenplay for “Nil by Mouth” (1997), to go home empty-handed at BAFTA for playing Winston Churchill, but he did lose the London Film Critics’ Circle prize to Chalamet. Those were obviously critics and these are British academy members voting, so there’s no cross-pollination, but it shows Oldman can lose on home soil.

SEE 2018 BAFTA Awards: Does Sally Hawkins (‘The Shape of Water’) have home-field advantage over Frances McDormand (‘Three Billboards’)?

Janney maintains 1/2 odds to grab Best Supporting Actress, but Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”) is on her tail with 3/1 odds. “Phantom Thread”’s Lesley Manville is third (16/1 odds), followed by “Darkest Hour”’s Kristin Scott Thomas (66/1 odds) – who’s spot is taken by Mary J. Blige (“Mudbound”) at the Oscars — and “Shape”’s Octavia Spencer (80/1 odds). Though Metcalf is in second, Manville is the true dark horse here and at the Oscars. She’s a respected British theater, film and TV star (she has two BAFTA TV nominations), and BAFTA can’t resist homegrown talent sometimes. Last year, Dev Patel (“Lion”) won Best Supporting Actor over eventual Oscar champ Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”). Manville winning instead of Metcalf would also be good news for Janney because there would be two alternatives to her who could split the vote instead of just one.

Rockwell has a 2/13 odds in Best Supporting Actor, ahead of “The Florida Project”’s Willem Dafoe (14/1 odds), “All the Money in the World”’s Christopher Plummer (40/1 odds), his co-star Woody Harrelson (66/1 odds) and “Paddington 2”’s Hugh Grant (66/1 odds), who was replaced by “Shape”’s Richard Jenkins at the Oscars. More so than the other acting races, Best Supporting Actor has the most “surprises.” Sometimes they go on to win Oscars, like Rylance or Alan Arkin (2006’s “Little Miss Sunshine”), and sometimes they don’t, like Patel or Jake Gyllenhaal (2005’s “Brokeback Mountain”). Rockwell has defeated everyone except Grant, whose delightful villainous performance in the “Paddington” sequel, which wasn’t eligible for the Oscars this year, has earned him the best reviews of his career. A win for him would not be unlike Bill Nighy taking the same prize for “Love Actually” (2003).

Which one is most susceptible to an upset? Vote below!

PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until March 4

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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