The American Cinema Editors nominations for the Eddie Awards announced on Jan. 3 included our Oscar frontrunner for Best Film Editing, “Dunkirk,” along with the other four films we’re predicting to reap bids in that race: “Blade Runner 2049,” “Get Out,” “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”
ACE has a good track record as a predictor of the Oscar winner for Best Picture (17 out of the last 27) and a great one for forecasting who will win the Film Editing Oscar (20 of the last 27). And, not surprisingly, it is also fairly prescient when it comes to predicting the five Film Editing Oscar nominations. In 1992, the Eddies went from three to five nominees (matching that of the Oscars) and in 2000 it split the award in two, with five nominees for each of drama and comedy/musical. Over the past 25 years, 110 of the 125 Oscar nominees for Film Editing had first reaped a Golden Eddie nod; that is an accuracy rate of 88%.
Our official Oscar odds are derived from the predictions of Expert film journalists, the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc.
BEST FILM EDITING
“Dunkirk” – 8/5
“The Shape of Water” – 9/2
“Get Out” – 7/1
“Blade Runner 2049” – 10/1
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” – 12/1
The experts overwhelmingly favor “Dunkirk” for a whopping 24 out of 25 backing its bid; the other is for “The Shape of Water.” Likewise for five of the eight editors, 22 of the Top 24 and 23 All-Stars.
Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.