It’s a rare feat for an actor to star in three Best Picture nominees at the Oscars in any given year. Michael Stuhlbarg stands a good chance of joining that illustrious list thanks to his performances in “Call Me by Your Name,” “The Post,” and “The Shape of Water.” But less attention has gone to another actor who could achieve the very same feat in three entirely different films: Caleb Landry Jones in “The Florida Project,” “Get Out,” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” It would be unprecedented for two actors to achieve the trifecta in a single year.
The last actor to land in three Best Picture nominees was John C. Reilly, who co-starred in “Chicago,” “Gangs of New York,” and “The Hours” in 2002, earning himself a Best Supporting Actor bid for “Chicago” in the process. That was even more impressive since there were only five nominees for Best Picture as opposed to the expanded field that could help Stuhlbarg and Jones this year. Before Reilly you have to go all the way back to 1939 to find the next most recent example: Thomas Mitchell in “Gone with the Wind,” “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington,” and “Stagecoach.”
Perhaps because Stuhlbarg has a higher profile in general and has been widely considered a Supporting Actor contender himself for “Call Me by Your Name,” he has gotten more attention for his potential hat trick. However, Jones already has an upper hand in one sense: while Stuhlbarg was improbably shut out of the SAG Awards (no individual nomination or ensemble nomination despite all his chances for recognition), Jones actually picked up two bids as a member of the ensemble casts of “Three Billboards” and “Get Out.”
Those two films appear to be Jones’s safest bet at the Oscars. In “Three Billboards” he plays Red Welby, who rents the title billboards to a grieving Mildred (Frances McDormand). And in “Get Out” he has a much more sinister role as Allison Williams‘s creepy brother Jeremy. As of this writing “Three Billboards” is on top of our Oscar predictions with 13/2 odds, while “Get Out” is not far off in fifth place with 17/2 odds.
The third nomination may be trickier. In “The Florida Project” Jones plays Jack, the son of Willem Dafoe‘s compassionate motel manager. That film currently ranks among likely Best Picture nominees in eighth place with 22/1 odds, but it’s not as certain. Most of the recognition for “The Florida Project” so far has gone to Dafoe, who was the only nomination at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and BAFTAs. And it was overlooked at the Producers Guild Awards, which have a strong correlation with Oscar. However, “Florida” did show up on AFI’s list of the best films of the year, and it was a Best Picture nominee at Critics’ Choice, which also has a strong correlation with Oscar.
So it might all come down to “The Florida Project.” If it hits, then Jones and Stuhlbarg appear likely to make history together. What do you think? Vote in our poll below to let us know who you think will achieve the trifecta.
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