Will Cardi B make VMA history as the first female rapper to win Best New Artist?

Hundreds of Gold Derby users are predicting the winners of this year’s MTV Video Music Awards, and the consensus is that Cardi B is the overwhelming favorite to win Best New Artist. She’s the most nominated artist of the year with 10 bids for her own work as well as contributions to other artists’ songs and videos. But a victory for her would be historic. Not only would she be the first solo female winner since Lady Gaga (2009), she’d be the first female rapper ever to prevail.

The last female rapper to earn a bid was Young M.A just last year, though she lost to teenage R&B breakout Khalid. Before that Iggy Azalea earned a bid for her video “Work” in 2013, but that award went to Austin Mahone for “What About Love.” Kreayshawn (“Gucci Gucci”) earned a bid in 2011, but fans picked a male rapper that year, Tyler the Creator (“Yonkers”). And Nicki Minaj picked up a nom in 2010 for “Massive Attack,” but voters went with Justin Bieber for “Baby.”

Before that Missy Elliott earned a nom as a featured artist on Ciara‘s “1, 2 Step” in 2005, but Elliott was already well established by then, and they still lost to The Killers for “Mr. Brightside.” That’s it for female rappers in Best New Artist history at the VMAs. Pioneers like Salt-n-Pepa, Queen Latifah, Lauryn Hill (with or without The Fugees), Lil Kim and Foxy Brown were never even nominated for Best New Artist.

Can Cardi B end that drought? It certainly looks like it. She’s backed by 23 of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s VMAs, and by 23 of our All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ VMA predictions.

But she should watch out for Lil Uzi Vert, who is nominated for Best New Artist even though he’s already a Moonman winner. He won Song of the Summer last year for “XO Tour Llif3,” and to do that he had to beat a slew of fan-favorites including Fifth Harmony, Demi Lovato, Shawn Mendes, Ed Sheeran and Bieber. If he could get out more votes than those other rabid fan bases, Cardi B should beware.

Be sure to make your MTV Video Music Award predictions so that music executives and top name stars can see how they’re faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced on August 20. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 VMAs taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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