Much to my surprise, I correctly predicted 72% of the winners at last weekend’s Creative Arts Emmy Awards. I based my picks on a combination of factors including who had the most buzz, who had the most cultural significance, who could repeat, and who could potentially win makeup prizes. Then I took a few risks on long-shot nominees. I discussed those Creative Arts predictions as well as my picks for the upcoming September 17 telecast with Gold Derby editor Daniel Montgomery. Watch our slugfest above.
Being the most talked-about nominee can often result in an Emmy win. This consideration helped me in pick popular nominees like Tiffany Haddish (“Saturday Night Live”) for Best Comedy Guest Actress. She’s still hot off her breakthrough performance in last year’s sleeper hit film “Girls Trip.” That combined with her memorable moments presenting at the Oscars and other media appearances made her a no-brainer as the winner in her category.
Over the last few years the Creative Arts Emmys have done a great job in honoring programs and performances highlighting people who are often underrepresented or marginalized. That’s why I thought “Strong Island” would upset “Jane” for Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking, not only for its subject matter (chronicling the murder of a young black man by a white man who was not prosecuted), but also the historical significance of its filmmaker. Yance Ford became the first openly transgender director to be nominated for an Academy Award earlier this year when “Strong Island” was up for Best Documentary Feature. He is now an Emmy winner as a producer of the film.
It wouldn’t be the Emmys without a few reruns. This theory held true in several categories like Best Variety Series Writing (“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver”) and Best Variety Series Directing (“Saturday Night Live”).
Sometimes the Emmys like to play catch-up by awarding nominees who had lost or were completely snubbed in the past. That’s why I predicted Ron Cephas Jones (Best Drama Guest Actor for “This is Us”) and “Rick and Morty” (Best Animated Program). Jones might have been Emmy voters’ second choice last year when he was up for Best Drama Supporting Actor, losing to John Lithgow (“The Crown”). And “Rick and Morty” kept coming up short, snubbed every year until finally earning its first nomination this summer. Voters couldn’t resist giving it the win now that it made the cut.
In order to land the top predictions score, one must know when to take a risk predicting a long-shot nominee. For me, that was Katt Williams (“Atlanta”) for Best Comedy Guest Actor. I was tempted to pick either Donald Glover or Bill Hader for guest hosting “SNL” given the sheer number of total nominations they received this year (five each). However, my gut was telling me to go with Williams as he stood out from the rest with his unexpected scene-stealing performance.
Now that I’ve shared my prediction secrets for last weekend, here are some nominees I’m predicting to win at the Primetime Emmy Awards telecast on Monday night, September 17, for many of the same reasons:
Most Buzzed About: Like almost everyone else, I’m betting on Rachel Brosnahan (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”) for Best Comedy Actress.
Cultural Significance: Watch out for Sandra Oh (“Killing Eve”) for Best Drama Actress. Don’t be surprised if voters want to give themselves a pat on the back by making Oh the first actress of Asian descent to win this category.
Repeat Winners: I’m predicting Sterling K. Brown (“This Is Us”) and Donald Glover (“Atlanta”) to repeat for Best Drama Actor and Best Comedy Actor, respectively.
Overdue Winner: I think TV icon Henry Winkler will win his long overdue first Primetime Emmy: Best Comedy Supporting Actor for “Barry.”
Longshot Prediction: Call me crazy, but I’m going with Letitia Wright for Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actress for “Black Museum (Black Mirror).” Wright’s star-making role in “Black Panther” earlier this year not only helped her earn an Emmy nom but will probably get her the win as well.
Be sure to make your Emmy predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before winners are announced on September 17. And join in the fun debate over the 2018 Emmy taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.