Emmys 2018: Are we underestimating Pamela Adlon (‘Better Things’) – again?

Pamela Adlon (“Better Things”) surprised many awards-watchers when she received an Emmy nomination last year for Best Comedy Actress for her role as a divorced actress raising her three daughters as a single mom. We had egg on our faces after ranking her 23rd in that category. Will she earn another bid in 2018? She’s in a better position now than she was last year, placed ninth in our predictions with 40/1 odds, but could we still be underestimating her? A few of our top users think so.

Our official Emmy predictions are based on the combined forecasts of more than 1,200 Gold Derby users, but not all users are created equal. Our Top 24 Users got the highest scores out of the more than 3,000 users who predicted last year’s nominations, so their predictions are especially influential in generating our racetrack odds. Currently three of them are betting on a repeat nomination for Adlon, including Umur Cagin Tas, who placed sixth overall.

We should have seen Adlon’s nomination coming last year since she has been a favorite of the TV academy with six Emmy nominations across writing, producing and acting categories. She won back in 2002 for her voice-over performance as multiple characters in the FOX animated series “King of the Hill.”

We underestimated Adlon again at the 2018 Golden Globes, where she earned a nom for Best TV Comedy Actress despite ranking seventh in our odds. So what could stop her from reaping another Emmy bid? Well, this year’s contest is even more crowded than usual. Though the six-time reigning champ Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”) won’t be eligible to defend her title this season since her treatment for cancer delayed production of her series, Adlon still has to contend against new faces like Rachel Brosnahan (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”) and Alison Brie (“GLOW”). Then there are returning Emmy favorites like Debra Messing (“Will and Grace”) and Roseanne Barr (“Roseanne“). And last year’s other nominees are all eligible to return: Allison Janney (“Mom”), Tracee Ellis Ross (“Black-ish”), Lily Tomlin (“Grace and Frankie”), Jane Fonda (“Grace and Frankie”) and Ellie Kemper (“Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”).

So will Adlon be crowded out, or do you agree with our top users who say she’ll surprise us yet again?

Be sure to make your Emmy predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before nominees are announced on July 12. And join in the fun debate over the 2018 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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