2018 Emmy for Best Movie/Mini Actress could go to Michelle Dockery (‘Godless’), based on recent pattern

The Emmy winner for Best Limited Series/Movie Actress has also seen their program win the Limited Series or Movie category more often than not over the past 10 years. Emmy voters have shown a clear tendency toward rewarding an actress and her program hand-in-hand, which greatly benefits Michelle Dockery (“Godless”) at this year’s awards, as her program could easily win the top prize.

Best Limited Series/Movie Actress has matched up with a program win a whopping seven times out of 10 this decade. Nicole Kidman (“Big Little Lies,” 2017), Sarah Paulson (“The People v. O.J. Simpson,” 2016), Frances McDormand (“Olive Kitteridge,” 2015) and Laura Linney (“John Adams,” 2008) all won alongside their respective limited series, while Julianne Moore (“Game Change,” 2012), Claire Danes (“Temple Grandin,” 2010) and Jessica Lange (“Grey Gardens,” 2009) won with their TV movies.

The only three instances of actress winners having their series/movie lose the program category are: Lange in 2014 for “American Horror Story: Coven,” which lost to “Fargo”; Linney in 2013 for “The Big C: Hereafter,” which wasn’t even nominated for the program category; and Kate Winslet in 2011 for “Mildred Pierce,” which lost to “Downton Abbey.”

It’s clear based on the evidence that it is almost a necessity for a Best Actress nominee’s series or movie to also be nominated in the designated program category. With only Linney for “The Big C: Hereafter” able to win without a program nomination from the last decade, it will be an uphill battle for four of this year’s six Best Limited Series/Movie Actress nominees. This is bad news for Jessica Biel (“The Sinner”), Edie Falco (“Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders”), Regina King (“Seven Seconds”) and Paulson (“American Horror Story: Cult”), whose respective series all failed to land nominations in Best Limited Series. Of course, they are not totally out of it yet, as evidenced by Linney’s “The Big C” win.

However, the Best Limited Series/Movie Actress race likely comes down to Laura Dern and Dockery, with “The Tale” and “Godless” nominated in the Best TV Movie and Best Limited Series categories, respectively. Since “The Tale” lost to “USS Callister: Black Mirror” at last weekend’s ceremony, that might suggest Dockery has the edge. “Godless” competes on Monday in Best Limited Series against the likes of “Assassination of Gianni Versace,” “Patrick Melrose,” “Genius: Picasso” and “The Alienist.”

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