How often do the four SAG champs go on to win Oscars?

With their wins at Sunday’s Screen Actors Guild Awards, Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”), Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards”) and Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”) continue their march toward becoming the first foursome to sweep the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, SAG, BAFTA and Oscar. Their SAG victories are the most important ones of the three groups so far, as the SAGs have a fantastic correlation with the Oscars; SAG has only missed five times in Best Actor, six times in Best Actress, nine times in Best Supporting Actor and seven times in Best Supporting Actress. But despite so much overlap between the individual races, SAG does not go 4-for-4 with Oscar in one season as often as you might think.

Over its 23-year history, SAG has only had a direct match in all four Oscar acting races six times, most recently three years ago. SAG typically goes 3-for-4 with Oscar, which has happened 11 times, including just last year, when Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”) won the Best Actor Oscar over SAG champ Denzel Washington (“Fences”). SAG has gone 2-for-4 and 1-for-4 with Oscar three times each, and has never gone 0-for-4.

SEE 2018 SAG Awards: Complete winners list in the 6 film and 9 TV categories

Some of these instances were forced splits, whether due to category confusion — like Kate Winslet infamously campaigning and winning in supporting for “The Reader” (2008) all season before getting nominated and winning in lead at the Oscars — or a performer getting snubbed by one organization, such as Marcia Gay Harden stunning everyone at the Oscars without a SAG or even a Golden Globe nomination under her belt for “Pollock” (2000).

So what does that mean for this year? History says SAG will probably get one wrong, though five of the six 4-for-4 matches have occurred this century when consensus has trumped surprises. But given the longer season because of the Winter Olympics — Oscar voting doesn’t even start until February 20 — there’s more time for someone’s bandwagon to get derailed. And if one does, whose would it be?

Here’s how SAG and Oscar have matched up in the past (years are of film release):

1994: 3/4
SAG: Tom Hanks (“Forrest Gump”), Jodie Foster (“Nell”), Martin Landau (“Ed Wood”), Dianne Wiest (“Bullets Over Broadway”)

Oscar:
Hanks, Jessica Lange (“Blue Sky”), Landau, Wiest

1995: 2/4
SAG: Nicolas Cage (“Leaving Las Vegas”), Susan Sarandon (“Dead Man Walking”), Ed Harris (“Apollo 13”), Kate Winslet (“Sense and Sensibility”)

Oscar: Cage, Sarandon, Kevin Spacey (“The Usual Suspects”), Mira Sorvino (“Mighty Aphrodite”)

1996: 3/4
SAG: Geoffrey Rush (“Shine”), Frances McDormand (“Fargo”), Cuba Gooding Jr. (“Jerry Maguire”), Lauren Bacall (“The Mirror Has Two Faces”)

Oscar: Rush, McDormand, Gooding, Juliette Binoche (“The English Patient”)

1997: 4/4*
SAG and Oscar: Jack Nicholson (“As Good as It Gets”), Helen Hunt (“As Good as It Gets”), Robin Williams (“Good Will Hunting”), Kim Basinger (“L.A. Confidential”)

*
Basinger won the SAG in a tie with Gloria Stuart (“Titanic”).

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1998: 2/4
SAG: Roberto Benigni (“Life Is Beautiful”), Gwyneth Paltrow (“Shakespeare in Love”), Robert Duvall (“A Civil Action”), Kathy Bates (“Primary Colors”)

Oscar: Benigni, Paltrow, James Coburn (“Affliction”), Judi Dench (“Shakespeare in Love”)

1999: 3/4
SAG: Kevin Spacey (“American Beauty”), Annette Bening (“American Beauty”), Michael Caine (“The Cider House Rules”), Angelina Jolie (“Girl, Interrupted”)

Oscar: Spacey, Hilary Swank (“Boys Don’t Cry”), Caine, Jolie

2000: 1/4*
SAG: Benicio Del Toro (“Traffic”), Julia Roberts (“Erin Brockovich”), Albert Finney (“Erin Brockovich”), Judi Dench (“Chocolat”)

Oscar: Russell Crowe (“Gladiator”), Roberts, Del Toro, Marcia Gay Harden (“Pollock”)

*Del Toro won the SAG in lead and the Oscar in supporting, while Harden was not nominated at SAG.

2001: 1/4*
SAG: Russell Crowe (“A Beautiful Mind”), Halle Berry (“Monster’s Ball”), Ian McKellen (“The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring”), Helen Mirren (“Gosford Park”)

Oscar: Denzel Washington (“Training Day”), Berry, Jim Broadbent (“Iris”), Jennifer Connelly (“A Beautiful Mind”)

*Connelly was nominated in lead at SAG and won the Oscar in supporting.

SEE 2018 SAG Awards film report: ‘Three Billboards’ is the top winner with 3

2002: 1/4
SAG: Daniel Day-Lewis (“Gangs of New York”), Renee Zellweger (“Chicago”), Christopher Walken (“Catch Me If You Can”), Catherine Zeta-Jones (“Chicago”)

Oscar: Adrien Brody (“The Pianist”), Nicole Kidman (“The Hours”), Chris Cooper (“Adaptation”), Zeta-Jones

2003: 3/4
SAG: Johnny Depp (“Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl”), Charlize Theron (“Monster”), Tim Robbins (“Mystic River”), Renee Zellweger (“Cold Mountain”)

Oscar: Sean Penn (“Mystic River”), Theron, Robbins, Zellweger

2004: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Jamie Foxx (“Ray”), Hilary Swank (“Million Dollar Baby”), Morgan Freeman (“Million Dollar Baby”), Cate Blanchett (“The Aviator”)

2005: 3/4
SAG: Philip Seymour Hoffman (“Capote”), Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line”), Paul Giamatti (“Cinderella Man”), Rachel Weisz (“The Constant Gardener”)

Oscar: Hoffman, Witherspoon, George Clooney (“Syriana”), Weisz

SEE 2018 Oscars: Will all four acting winners pull off an unprecedented sweep?

2006: 3/4
SAG: Forest Whitaker (“The Last King of Scotland”), Helen Mirren (“The Queen”), Eddie Murphy (“Dreamgirls”), Jennifer Hudson (“Dreamgirls”)

Oscar: Whitaker, Mirren, Alan Arkin (“Little Miss Sunshine”), Hudson

2007: 2/4
SAG: Daniel Day-Lewis (“There Will Be Blood”), Julie Christie (“Away From Her”), Javier Bardem (“No Country for Old Men”), Ruby Dee (“American Gangster”)

Oscar: Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”), Bardem, Tilda Swinton (“Michael Clayton”)

2008: 3/4*
SAG: Sean Penn (“Milk”), Meryl Streep (“Doubt”), Heath Ledger (“The Dark Knight”), Kate Winslet (“The Reader”)

Oscar: Penn, Winslet, Ledger, Penelope Cruz (“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”)

*Winslet won the SAG in supporting and the Oscar in lead.

2009: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”), Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”), Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds”), Mo’Nique (“Precious”)

SEE 2018 SAG Awards: How were the winners decided by the Screen Actors Guild?

2010: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech”), Natalie Portman (“Black Swan”), Christian Bale (“The Fighter”), Melissa Leo (“The Fighter”)

2011: 3/4
SAG: Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”), Viola Davis (“The Help”), Christopher Plummer (“Beginners”), Octavia Spencer (“The Help”)

Oscar: Dujardin, Streep (“The Iron Lady”), Plummer, Spencer

2012: 3/4*
SAG: Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”), Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”), Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”)

Oscar: Day-Lewis, Lawrence, Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”), Hathaway

*Waltz was not nominated at SAG.

2013: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club”), Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine”), Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”), Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave”)

SEE 2018 SAG Awards live blog: Let’s dish the best, worst and craziest moments

2014: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”), Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”), J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”), Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”)

2015: 3/4*
SAG: Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”), Brie Larson (“Room”), Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”), Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”)

Oscar: DiCaprio, Larson, Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”), Vikander

*Elba was not nominated at the Oscars.

2016: 3/4
SAG: Denzel Washington (“Fences”), Emma Stone (“La La Land”), Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”), Viola Davis (“Fences”)

Oscar: Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”), Stone, Ali, Davis

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