Like the sinister “woke” dad played by Bradley Whitford in “Get Out,” most members of the academy probably would have voted for President Obama for a third term. But will they give “Get Out” their votes for Oscar?
The film was written and directed by Jordan Peele, who has become only the fifth black nominee for Best Director in Oscar history and the first black filmmaker to be nominated for writing, directing and producing the same film. But despite being one of the most critically hailed flicks of the year there is one scary prospect: that “Get Out” will be shut out at this year’s Academy Awards. Here’s a rundown of its chances in all four of the film’s categories.
Best Picture (7/1 odds, third place):
With directing, writing and acting nominations, the film has support across the most important branches of the academy for signaling a Best Picture front-runner. Its industry support runs even deeper than that, having also been recognized by many guild awards (including the Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and even the Art Directors Guild and Costume Designers Guild). Strong critical acclaim and box office performance add to the case for a Best Picture victory for the film, which bent the conventions of the horror genre to provide biting social commentary on race in America.
However, not scoring nominations for editing or other below-the-line fields shows potential weakness for the film compared to other contenders like “The Shape of Water,” which enjoys 13 nominations; the only film in the last 37 years to win Best Picture without a Best Editing bid was “Birdman” (2014). That said, last year “Moonlight” (2016) proved the preferential ballot used for Best Picture, which rewards consensus choices over films with a smaller passionate following, can result in shocking twists.
Best Director, Jordan Peele (50/1 odds, fourth place):
“Get Out” winning here would be historic. Jordan Peele would become the first black director to claim this prize. But he needs to overcome front-runner Guillermo del Toro for his visually flashy fairy tale “The Shape of Water” — a tough task. Recently two films helmed by black directors won Best Picture, “12 Years A Slave” (2013) and “Moonlight,” but both lost the Best Director prize. Can Peele reverse that trend by picking up this trophy?
Best Actor, Daniel Kaluuya (50/1 odds, fourth place):
Daniel Kaluuya gives an intense performance as a black man wary of meeting his girlfriend’s white family, but he probably has the biggest uphill climb of any “Get Out” nominee. That’s largely due to a transformative and showy performance by Gary Oldman as historic icon Winston Churchill in “Darkest Hour.” It’s the type of transformative biographical performance that seems designed to win Oscar, and Oldman has won Golden Globe, SAG, Critics’ Choice and BAFTA Awards along the way. Barring a tremendous upset Kaluuya may be stuck in the Oscars’ sunken place.
Best Original Screenplay, Jordan Peele (13/10 odds, first place):
This is where “Get Out” stands the best chance of escaping a dreaded shutout. The script is arguably the most acclaimed aspect of the film for its mix of wit, horror and social commentary. It also just won the Writers Guild Award for Original Screenplay. Its biggest competition comes from “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” by Martin McDonagh and “Lady Bird” by Greta Gerwig. “Billboards” is expected to win other awards on the night, including Best Actress (Frances McDormand), Best Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell) and maybe even Best Picture. So unfortunately this could very well be the showdown that determines if “Lady Bird” and/or “Get Out” leaves Oscar night empty-handed. But as of this writing “Get Out” has the edge to emerge from Oscar night with at least one trophy on its mantel.
Be sure to check out how our experts rank Oscar contenders in all 24 categories. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your Oscar winner predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4.