When the Golden Globe nominations are unveiled at 5 a.m. PT Thursday morning, here’s what you can expect to see on the film list based upon my brazen snooping around the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and my own kudos expertise. Check out how my picks compare to those of 23 other experts making predictions at Gold Derby – also our Top 24 Users (best predictions last year), Top 24 All Stars (best predictions over the past few years) and all Users. Here are Gold Derby’s latest racetrack odds based upon a combination of all predictions.
Disagree? Make your own predictions here and see if you can best us!
UPDATED: 4 p.m. PT — I’ve revised some of my predictions posted below earlier today based upon more input from various sources.
BEST DRAMA PICTURE
“A Star is Born”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Star Is Born,” “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “Black Panther” are locks. Don’t pay attention to the idiot film critics who bashed “Bohemian.” They started gunning for it even before they saw it. They’re wrong. Audiences know that (A+ Cinemascore; $540 million b.o. worldwide) and so do Globe voters. In fact, from what I hear, they’re wild for “Bohemian.”
The other two spots are open. Serious contenders include “A Quiet Place,” “BlacKkKlansman,” “First Reformed” and Clint Eastwood’s “The Mule,” which voters saw a few days ago and seemed to like. (Curiously, Clint has not yet shown it to the rest of us in the awards biz.) “Roma” is not eligible in this category, being a foreign-lingo film.
The early awards buzz for “First Man” has dimmed over the past two months, but voters are members of the foreign press with exalted respect for the story of our Yankee moon shot and they really do like the movie.
BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Yalitza Aparicio (“Roma”)
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Nicole Kidman, “Destroyer”
Lady Gaga, “A Star is Born”
Natalie Portman, “Vox Lux”
Gaga and Close are shoo-ins, of course, and HFPA members are crazy for Kidman’s performance in “Destroyer,” I hear, so you can expect that, too. Voters love to hail foreign-language roles. Isabelle Huppert won two years ago for “Elle.” This year Yalitz Aparicio (“Roma”) or Joanna Kulig (“Cold War”) has the best shot for that slot. Earlier today I stuck out my neck for Kulig, but now I’m switching to Aparicio based upon further intel I’m getting.
Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”) is possible, but she hasn’t fared well this derby season, getting snubbed at the Indie Spirits and Gotham Awards even though her co-star Richard E. Grant made the cuts.
Portman is a wild-card contender. She’s only in the last half of “Vox Lux” and belongs in the supporting category – that’s where she submitted her name for consideration. But so many voters lobbied so passionately for her to be bumped up to lead that they forced a rare rebellious vote across HFPA, which caved, and they put her in the top acting race. Now how can they not nominate her there after all of that internal hubbub? However, some members believe the controversy has hurt Portman’s hopes.
Spies tell me that voters adore Julia Roberts in “Ben Is Back,” but they know she’ll already attend the Globes ceremony as a nominee on the TV side for Amazon’s “Homecoming.” Emily Blunt could be snubbed in this category for “A Quiet Place” for a similar reason: HFPA members know she’ll be nommed for “Mary Poppins Returns.” However, they frequently make exceptions and I think that’s most likely this year for Kidman (“Destroyer,” “Boy Erased”), but double love is also very possible for Roberts and/or Blunt. Lastly, don’t write off Viola Davis (“Widows”), who has notable support.
BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, “A Star is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed”
Clint Eastwood, “The Mule”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Only Cooper and Malek are safe. Eastwood is likely since “The Mule” is reputed to be his final film role. Lucas Hedges had a bonanza year, but his votes may be split by “Ben Is Back” and “Boy Erased.” HFPA members were with Willem Dafoe at the Venice Film Festival when he won Best Actor, but lots of them didn’t like “At Eternity’s Gate” even though they valued his screen turn. Nonetheless, I think he’s got strong enough support to break in. Voters adore Jackman, so don’t be surprised if he gets nommed. And, believe it or not, Chadwick Boseman (“Black Panther”) also has support thanks to the strength of “Panther.”
Voters like John C. Reilley a lot and are pushing him here for “The Sisters Brothers” and, over on the comedy side, for “Stan and Ollie.” Ryan Gosling is a fave of voters, but they thought his character was too subdued in “First Man.” They’re charmed by John David Washington (“BlacKkKlansman”), who’s wooed them savvily throughout awards season. Denzel’s son could get noticed now because voters have a history of doting on the children of superstars.
BEST MUSICAL/ COMEDY PICTURE
“Crazy Rich Asians”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
These five look pretty strong. Don’t underestimate “Crazy Rich Asians” with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. The worldwide super-hit not only has irresistible international appeal, but one HFPA member (Lisa Lu) actually stars in it as grandma Ah Ma! Also, let’s be honest: It deserves to make this list despite what some grumpy, clueless (and heartless) Yankee film critics say. Snobby cineastes seldom appreciate great commercial flicks with heightened romantic sentiment. “Eighth Grade” is also in the mix here.
BEST MUSICAL/ COMEDY ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Elsie Fisher, “Eighth Grade”
Charlize Theron, “Tully”
Constance Wu, “Crazy Rich Asians”
Slam-dunks to get in: Blunt, Colman and Wu. Lots of voters love Fisher. Theron has buzz within HFPA for “Tully,” so I’m putting her on my list. Other potentials: Kathryn Hahn (“Private Life”) and Lily James (“Mama Mia! Here We Go Again”).
BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
Robert Redford, “The Old Man and the Gun”
John C. Reilly, “Stan and Ollie”
Solid for nominations: Bale, Miranda and Mortensen. Redford is likely because he announced that “Old Man” is his final screen role. I think this is the category where we’ll see John C. Reilly pop up. Maybe Henry Golding (“Crazy Rich Asians”), too. Or Ryan Reynolds (“Deadpool 2”)?
Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Peter Farrelly, “Green Book”
Barry Jenkins, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
Cuaron, Cooper and Farrelly are gimmes. Voters really like Jenkins a lot personally and he holds a Globes I.O.U. since he didn’t win for “Moonlight,” which took their prize for Best Drama Picture. This year they’re ecstatic for “Favourite” among those little, edgy indie-type flicks (it could even pull off an upset for Best Drama Picture like “Moonlight” did), so Lanthimos looks good here. Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”) and John Krasinski (“A Quiet Place”) have done a great job wooing HFPA members. Ryan Coogler (“Black Panther”) is also strong.
Voters like “A Quiet Place” a lot and are trying to find ways to make sure both Emily Blunt and hubby Krasinski get nominations for Globes night. He might be nominated here for Best Director, but his best hopes are probably supporting actor and/or over on the TV side for “Jack Ryan” on Netflix.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Timothee Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Elliott, “A Star is Born”
John Krasinski, “A Quiet Place”
Bet on Ali, Grant, Chalamet and Elliott to get in. That only leaves one spot open and I’m giving it to Krasinski. But, yikes, look at all of these other heavyweight contenders knocking at the category door: Russell Crowe (“Boy Erased”), Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman”), Nicholas Hoult (“The Favourite”), Michael B. Jordan (“Black Panther”) and Sam Rockwell (“Vice”).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Nicole Kidman, “Boy Erased”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
This lineup looks pretty solid, but watch out for Michelle Yeoh in “Crazy Rich Asians” (I put her in my predictions earlier today, but just bumped her for Adams), Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”) and Claire Foy (“First Man”). It’d be terrible if King got omitted from this category since she appears to have a prominent lead to win the Oscar, but that’s possible.