The Golden Globe Awards stress me out like no other. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association loves doing its own thing, which is not great for my overactive, over-thinking mind. Add in the fact that this is the most unpredictable Oscar race in years, and, well, I have more white hairs than usual. Here are four races I haven’t yet settled on:
Best Drama Film — I honestly can’t remember the last time I was this torn over Best Drama Film at the Globes. We can all agree that “The Post,” “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” are the ostensible top three on the strength of their nomination counts (“The Shape of Water” has seven; “The Post” and “Three Billboards,” six), with “Dunkirk” (three nods) and “Call Me By Your Name” (three nods) lagging behind. I slotted in “The Post” after nominations more so as a placeholder, but I’m tempted to keep it. Its subject matter — freedom of the press — is right up the HFPA’s alley, and after Meryl Streep’s Cecil B. DeMille speech last year, the HFPA can double-down on the message. “The Post” also has six nominations and while the other two films are favorites elsewhere (like director for “The Shape of Water’s” Guillermo Del Toro and screenplay for “Three Billboards’” Martin McDonagh, and drama actress for both), “The Post’s” next best shot is in drama actress with Streep, who’s arguably third behind Sally Hawkins and Frances McDormand. Would the HFPA really let “The Post” go 0-6? No film with at least six nominations has gone home empty-handed since “The Godfather Part III” (1990). It could easily take the top prize without any other awards like “12 Years a Slave” (2013) and “Moonlight” last year.
Best Comedy/Musical Film — I currently have “Lady Bird” and I feel more secure about this than the others, but I am debating swapping in “Get Out.” “Lady Bird” should take home at least one acting statuette, for Saoirse Ronan in lead and/or Laurie Metcalf in supporting, so it’ll walk away a winner, but the HFPA could and would toss “Get Out” a win here, if only to not incur more backlash after snubbing it in director and screenplay. And all that comedy categorization brouhaha shouldn’t be a detriment (see: “The Martian”).
Best Drama Actress — Hawkins (“The Shape of Water”) could easily take this, but I’m sticking with McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) for now. She’s never won a Globe and this is her sixth nomination. The HFPA clearly loved the film and this would be one of the best ways to recognize it. I am also bracing myself to hear Streep’s name if voters are hoping for another fiery turn at the mic from her.
Best Supporting Actor — One of my biggest regrets is taking Christopher Plummer (“All the Money in the World”) out of my nomination predictions literally at the 11th hour – 11 p.m. the night before – and then these guys went hard on the Ridley Scott pic. Sigh. I have Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”) in, again as a placeholder, but Plummer winning would be such a Globes move. Plus, after Aaron Taylor-Johnson (“Nocturnal Animals”), nothing will ever seem as wild. The fact that Plummer is getting great reviews only validates the nom; it’s not just the Globes going crazy for a film specially screened for them! If he makes the Oscar final five in this fluid category, the Globes would only look smart and could gloat unlike last year. But maybe after last year they want to be conservative and stick to the critical consensus? And if not Dafoe, there’s always Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”).
Be sure to make your Golden Globe predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on January 7. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Golden Globes taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.