Are we underestimating FX’s “Pose” at the Golden Globes? The series explores the lives of transgender characters in the ball culture in late-1980s New York, and as of this writing it ranks fifth in the race for Best TV Drama Series with odds of 7/1, according to the combined predictions of hundreds of Gold Derby users who have entered their picks in our predictions center. So it’s a likely nominee, but not necessarily a likely winner. Here are the top three reasons I think it’s a bigger threat than our odds are giving it credit for.
1. The Globes love brand new shows
Our current Best Drama Series front-runner “Killing Eve” is certainly the kind of new series the Globes like, but it debuted back in the spring so the Emmys got there first, nominating it for its writing and for Sandra Oh‘s lead performance. “Pose,” meanwhile, premiered in the summer after the Emmy eligibility period was over. That means the Globes will get first crack at it in this TV awards cycle, and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association often can’t resist planting their flag in a buzz-worthy new hit. In three of the last four years they awarded Best Drama to a show that debuted in the summer or later: “The Affair” (2015), “Mr. Robot” (2016) and “The Crown” (2017).
2. The Globes love Ryan Murphy
The HFPA have gotten on-board with Ryan Murphy shows even when the Emmys didn’t. They awarded Best Drama Series to “Nip/Tuck” in 2005, and they gave Best Comedy Series to “Glee” twice (2010-2011) even though they rarely like to repeat themselves. Later they awarded Matt Bomer for Murphy’s “The Normal Heart” in 2015 even after the Emmys snubbed him. Then they took a risk by awarding Lady Gaga for “American Horror Story: Hotel” in 2016. And in 2017 they joined the chorus of awards groups that gave top honors to “The People v. O.J. Simpson.”
3. The Globes would get to break new ground
“Pose” is unlike any other show on television in centering transgender characters played by transgender actors. So the same voting body that picked politically resonant winners like “Transparent” (Best Comedy Series, 2015) and “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Best Drama Series, 2018) might also appreciate an unprecedented show like this.
Be sure to make your Golden Globe predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on December 6. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 Golden Globes taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.