Golden Globes predictions by experts: Oscar frontrunner ‘A Star is Born’ far ahead for Best Drama

Sixteen of our 18 Golden Globe experts from major media outlets are predicting that the Oscar frontrunner, “A Star is Born,” will win Best Drama at these precursor prizes. One is backing “BlacKKKlansman” while another favors “First Man.”

Bradley Cooper‘s remake of “A Star is Born” debuted at the Venice film festival as did Damien Chazelle‘s “First Man.” Spike Lee‘s”BlacKKKlansman” premiered at Cannes and was a big hit this summer.

Of the 65 winners of Best Drama at the Golden Globes, just under half (32) went on to take home the top prize at the Oscars. However, since the academy expanded the Best Picture race in 2009, only four of the nine winners of that award had previously prevailed on the drama side at the Golden Globes. Last year “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” won at the Globes over, among others, the eventual Oscar pick “The Shape of Water.” In 2017, “Moonlight” was the winner with both groups.

See how our experts rank Golden Globe contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Golden Globe Best Drama predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the top five contenders to win:

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1. “A Star is Born”: 16 experts (3/1 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Ed Douglas (Weekend Warrior)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Susan King (Gold Derby)
Wilson Morales (Black Film)
Perri Nemiroff (Collider)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)
Keith Simanton (IMDb)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Anne Thompson (IndieWire)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby).

2. “BlacKKKlansman”: 1 expert (5/1 odds)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)

3. “First Man”: 1 expert (5/1 odds)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)

4. “Black Panther” (11/2 odds)

5. “If Beale Street Could Talk” (6/1 odds)

PREDICT the Golden Globe nominees now; change them until December 6

Be sure to make your Golden Globe predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on December 6. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 Golden Globes taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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