“Killing Eve” may not have received a Best Drama Series Emmy nomination, but it’s the odds-on favorite to win the corresponding category at the Golden Globes, leading with 9/2 odds. The BBC America series has a lot of things going for it, most notably that it’s contending with its first season, and a victory would make it the fifth straight year that the category went to a first-year show.
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association loves shiny new toys and has been on a roll recently crowning fresh faces in Best Drama Series. The past four winners — “The Affair,” “Mr. Robot,” “The Crown” and “The Handmaid’s Tale” — all prevailed for their freshman outings, and two of them, “The Affair” and “Mr. Robot,” weren’t even nominated for their sophomore installments. That’s how ruthless the HFPA can be and how quickly it moves on.
Before this streak started, the Globes did the very rare move of awarding a show for its final season, when “Breaking Bad” won its first and only series Globe in 2014. But that was a case of voters feeling like they had to award it since the show had become Too Big to Ignore by its final season. Under “normal” circumstances, the Globe probably would’ve gone to a first-year show at the time, like “House of Cards,” for which Robin Wright won Best TV Drama Actress that same night, or “Masters of Sex.” Before this, “Homeland” won two in a row for its first two seasons, the last time a show defended its crown in this category. So the odds are against “The Handmaid’s Tale,” whose Season 2 finale has polarized fans and critics.
That opens the door for “Killing Eve.” A psychological spy thriller, “Killing Eve” has become a slow-burn hit since its April premiere, netting a writing Emmy nomination for Phoebe Waller-Bridge, who adapted the series based on Luke Jennings‘ “Villanelle” novels, and a Best Drama Actress Emmy nomination for Sandra Oh, the first Asian nominee in the category. Oh is frontrunner to take home the Globe, which would make her the second Asian winner in that category after Yoko Shimada (“Shōgun”) won in 1981. The Globes often likes to award a series and an actor hand-in-hand, so this pairing would keep that tradition alive.
But “Killing Eve” may not be the only new series in the lineup. Amazon’s upcoming series “Homecoming” and FX’s “Pose” are also predicted to make the cut, along with “The Handmaid’s Tale” and “The Americans.” “Homecoming” hails from “Mr. Robot” creator Sam Esmail and is based on the narrative podcast of the same name. And oh yeah, it stars Julia Roberts. “Pose” comes from Globe favorite Ryan Murphy and is a groundbreaking series led by trans actors. They are both “younger” than “Killing Eve,” so if the recency effect is a factor, “Killing Eve” might be the killed, not the killer, in this race.
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Golden Globe contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Golden Globe predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on Dec. 6.