Gotham Awards predictions 2018: Will they favor ‘The Favourite’ over ‘Beale Street’ and ‘First Reformed’?

The Gotham Awards will be handed out tonight, November 26, during a gala dinner at Cipriani Wall Street in New York City. You can watch them online starting at 8:00pm Eastern. But who will win? Scroll down for our predictions in eight categories with the nominees listed in order of their racetrack odds and projected winners highlighted in gold.

Our odds are determined by combining the forecasts of hundreds of Gold Derby users, but the actual winners will be chosen by juries of writers, directors, actors, producers, editors and others directly involved in making films. Presented by the Independent Filmmaker Project, these kudos haven’t usually been considered a strong Oscar bellwether, but they have previewed the Oscar winner for Best Picture three times in the last four years: “Birdman” (2014), “Spotlight” (2015) and “Moonlight” (2016) all prevailed at both awards.

In 2017 they split, with the Gothams picking “Call Me by Your Name” and the Oscars going for “The Shape of Water,” but “Call Me” was still a Best Picture nominee at the Oscars, and it ended up winning for James Ivory‘s adapted screenplay, so this could be the start of a strong awards streak either way.

We’re betting on a good night for “The Favourite,” which is a guaranteed winner thanks to its Special Jury Award for Olivia Colman, Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz‘s ensemble performance. And our odds say it will also win its competitive awards for Best Feature and Best Screenplay.

Meanwhile, Bo Burnham is tipped to win Breakthrough Director for “Eighth Grade,” while Glenn Close (“The Wife”) is likely to start what she hopes will be a long overdue Oscar march for Best Actress. Best Actor Oscar dark horse Ethan Hawke (“First Reformed”) is also favored at these kudos.

Do you agree with our forecasts? Check out our predictions below, and discuss this and more with your fellow movie fans in our forums.

BEST FEATURE
“The Favourite” — 11/2
If Beale Street Could Talk” — 13/2
“First Reformed” — 7/1
“The Rider” — 7/1
“Madeline’s Madeline” — 15/2

BEST DOCUMENTARY
“Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” — 11/2
“Minding the Gap” — 6/1
“Shirkers” — 7/1
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening” — 7/1
“Bisbee ’17” — 15/2

BREAKTHROUGH DIRECTOR AWARD
Bo Burnham, “Eighth Grade” — 11/2
Boots Riley, “Sorry to Bother You” — 13/2
Ari Aster, “Hereditary” — 13/2
Jennifer Fox, “The Tale” — 7/1
Crystal Moselle, “Skate Kitchen” — 15/2

BEST SCREENPLAY
“The Favourite” — 11/2
“First Reformed” — 6/1
“Private Life” — 7/1
“Thoroughbreds” — 7/1
“Support the Girls” — 15/2

BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close, “The Wife” — 11/2
Toni Collette, “Hereditary” — 6/1
Kathryn Hahn, “Private Life” — 7/1
Regina Hall, “Support the Girls” — 7/1
Michelle Pfeiffer, “Where is Kyra?” — 15/2

BEST ACTOR
Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed” — 11/2
Ben Foster, “Leave No Trace” — 13/2
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” — 7/1
Lakeith Stanfield, “Sorry to Bother You” — 7/1
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman” — 15/2

BREAKTHROUGH ACTOR
Kiki Layne, “If Beale Street Could Talk” — 11/2
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma” — 6/1
Elsie Fisher, “Eighth Grade” — 7/1
Thomasin McKenzie, “Leave No Trace” — 7/1
Helena Howard, “Madeline’s Madeline” — 15/2

BREAKTHROUGH SERIES (LONG FORM)
“Killing Eve” — 11/2
“Sharp Objects” — 13/2
“Pose” — 15/2
“Alias Grace” — 19/2
“Big Mouth” — 21/2
“The End of the F***ing World” — 11/1

Be sure to make your Gotham predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see this year’s contenders are faring in our Gotham odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on November 26. And join the discussion on this and more taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movies forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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