Laurie Metcalf will give one televised acceptance speech, at least according to our latest Independent Spirit Awards predictions. While Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”) has decimated the field since the televised awards started and is the favorite to win the Best Supporting Actress Oscar, our odds still have the “Lady Bird” star beating her for the Spirit Award.
Metclaf, the predicted champ since nominations were announced in November, holds an 8/13-odd lead over Janney (3/2 odds). None of the other nominees, Holly Hunter (“The Big Sick”), Lois Smith (“Marjorie Prime”) and Taliah Lennice Webster (“Good Time”), are predicted to win.
Metcalf’s tender, subtle performance in a film by indie darling Greta Gerwig checks a lot of boxes, but Spirit Awards voters also have no problem rubber-stamping an Oscar frontrunner if they’re on the shortlists. In 2014, all four Spirit Awards acting winners — Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine”), Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave”) and “Dallas Buyers Club” stars Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto — went on to win Oscars for the first time.
Also helping Janney is her more robust film resume, which has netted her two previous Spirit Awards nominations, for “Our Very Own” (2005) and “Life During Wartime” (2010). Metcalf, meanwhile, is on her first nomination.
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.