Watch out for ‘Mammia Mia! Here We Go Again’ at the Golden Globes

Ten years ago, “Mammia Mia” was nominated for two Golden Globes: Best Comedy/ Musical and Best Comedy/ Musical Actress for Meryl Streep. It lost the picture race to Woody Allen‘s “Vicky Christina Barcelona” while Streep was bested by Sally Hawkins in Mike Leigh’s “Happy-Go-Lucky.” Now, a decade on, “Mammia Mia! Here We Go Again” could wreak its revenge.

The film follows Amanda Seyfried‘s Sophie as she prepares for the re-opening of her mother’s old Greek hotel. Throughout, the film jumps back in the past to focus on Lily James‘ younger version of Donna (Meryl Streep – and the mother of Sophie), showing us how she met the three possible fathers of her eventual daughter.

It’s a musical delight with a message, exactly the sort of film that the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. likes to reward. And tuners tend to fare well at the Globes. Indeed, so long as you’re a song-filled film, you’re in with a shot for Best Comedy/Musical Picture.

The table below demonstrates the love shown for such films by the Globes. Green means a musical was nominated but didn’t win, red means no musical was nominated, and gold means a musical was nominated and won the award.

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Of the last 15 ceremonies, only five of those years have gone without a musical nominee in the Best Comedy/Musical Picture category. And in the last 15 years, a total of 14 musicals have been nominated for the award. That’s almost one a year, so “Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again” should feel positive about its chances of being nominated.

However, don’t expect it to necessarily win the award. Only four times in the past 15 years has a musical actually gone on to take home Best Comedy/Musical Picture: “Dreamgirls,” “Sweeney Todd,” “Les Miserables,” and “La La Land.” Interestingly, “La La Land” is the only original musical to ever win the award.

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