Michelle Dockery (‘Godless’): Top 5 reasons I’m predicting her to upset at the Emmys

Laura Dern (“The Tale”) has been the Emmy front-runner for Best Movie/Mini Actress since her film premiered on HBO to rave reviews in May, but after the Emmy nominations were announced in July I decided to switch my pick to Michelle Dockery (“Godless”). Here are five reasons why:

1. “Godless” dominated the Emmy nominations — We expected “Godless” to do well, but with 12 bids it was second only to “The Assassination of Gianni Versace” among limited series. And the good news for Dockery is that “Versace” doesn’t have a lead actress, which means …

2. “Godless” has by far the most support of any program in this category — The next most nominated show represented in Best Movie/Mini Actress is “American Horror Story: Cult” for Sarah Paulson. It has seven noms, but it’s not up for Best Limited Series. The only nomination for “The Tale” besides Dern is Best TV Movie. And Jessica Biel (“The Sinner”), Edie Falco (“Law and Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders”) and Regina King (“Seven Seconds”) are the only nominees from their programs.

3. Michelle Dockery has an Emmy IOU since she never won for “Downton Abbey” — Dockery’s breakthrough role as Mary Crawley in the British period drama earned her three straight nominations for Best Drama Actress (2012-2014). Residual goodwill for that show could carry over here, especially since she never won for that performance.

4. Dockery shows her dramatic range — You can’t get much farther from “Downton Abbey” than an American western, so voters who were fans of her previous work might be doubly impressed by her creative departure here.

5. The Netflix factor — For the first time in history Netflix surpassed HBO as the most nominated network of the season. That’s due in no small part to the blitz of Netflix programming in recent years — series and movies and documentaries, oh my! So if you’re a member of the actors branch catching up on the work of Claire Foy (“The Crown”), Millie Bobby Brown (“Stranger Things”) or Tituss Burgess (“Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”), chances are you’re getting prompts to catch up on “Godless” too. In the era of peak TV, just attracting eyeballs is half the battle.

Be sure to make your Emmy predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before winners are announced on September 17. Be sure to also predict winners for the Creative Arts ceremonies slated for September 8 and 9. And join in the fun debate over the 2018 Emmy taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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