According to the majority of Gold Derby users, the Emmy for Best Drama Actor is a two-way race between defending champ Sterling K. Brown (“This is Us”) as a devoted husband and father and sentimental fave Matthew Rhys (“The Americans“) for his final season as an undercover KGB operative. But are we underestimating Brown’s on-screen dad Milo Ventimiglia?
Brown is the current front-runner with leading odds of 21/20, and Rhys follows closely behind with odds of 13/8. Almost all of the Expert journalists we’ve polled are divided between the two of them, as are all of Gold Derby’s Editors who cover awards year-round. But there are a handful of our most elite users who beg to differ.
As of this writing Ventimiglia is backed by 3 of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Emmy winners. That includes Grug and Gwen Stephens, who both tied for the fourth highest predictions accuracy score last year (88.89%). He’s also supported by 2 of our All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ Emmy predictions.
This is Ventimiglia’s second straight nomination for the NBC family drama, but Brown has gotten the lion’s share of awards attention for the show, claiming last year’s Emmy and then following that with Golden Globe, SAG and Critics’ Choice Awards. But season two of “This is Us” gave much of the spotlight to Ventimiglia, finally revealing the cause of death for his character, patriarch Jack Pearson, in the show’s most watched and discussed episode of the season, “Super Bowl Sunday.”
“This is Us” lost some ground in this year’s nominations, dipping to 8 bids from the 10 it received last year. But half of those nominations are for acting, so the show remains popular with academy members in the actors branch who will decide this category. And having watched Brown give several acceptance speeches in the last year, they may want to spread the wealth to his on-screen dad.
But Ventimiglia still trails in our overall predictions, ranked third with 14/1 odds. Do you agree with our top users that we might be underestimating him, or do they not know Jack about the Emmys?
Be sure to make your Emmy predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before winners are announced on September 17. Be sure to also predict winners for the Creative Arts ceremonies slated for September 8 and 9. And join in the fun debate over the 2018 Emmy taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.