Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”), Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) and Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”) seem to be in cruise control toward Oscar wins after claiming the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice and Screen Actors Guild Awards. All four are leading their respective acting categories in our combined odds, but in the (however unlikely) event of an upset, which frontrunner is the most vulnerable?
That’s the question posed by User Joe Burns in our forums. Burns believes Rockwell is the most vulnerable to “The Shape of Water” star Richard Jenkins because “Supporting Actor is the race where they like to honor veterans which may give Richard Jenkins an opening.”
User MrGoodWood disagrees with that assessment because Rockwell’s competition is “too weak,” but suspects Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”) can upset Janney. The complexion of the Best Supporting Actress race has changed with “I, Tonya” underperforming and Lesley Manville’s surprise nomination for “Phantom Thread.”
“Lesley Manville’s nomination makes this race different,” User FreemanGriffin writes. “I still think Laurie Metcalf could win, but then so could Janney. A real toss-up.”
User Marcus Snowden concurs that Janney is the shakiest and is also keeping an eye out on Sally Hawkins (“The Shape of Water”) in Best Actress after “Three Billboards” director Martin McDonagh’s snub, which “has me wondering if Hawkins could upset McDormand and pull off a feat even more impressive that Adrien Brody’s shocking win in 2003.”
One thing almost everyone can agree on: Oldman is the safest. But with the longer lag time between nominations and voting, a lot could change over the next month. “I think Oldman is a lock due to lack of other choices,” User RobertPius writes, “but I could see a groundswell of backlash forming against all the other acting races as well as Best Picture.”
Who do you think is the most vulnerable? Join the discussion now!
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.