2018 Oscar Best Picture predictions by experts: ‘Three Billboards’ has narrow lead over ‘The Shape of Water’ on eve of nominations announcement

With just hours to go until the 2018 Academy Awards nominations are announced on Jan. 23, our 31 Oscar experts from major media outlets have just finalized their predictions for Best Picture. Martin McDonagh‘s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” now has the votes of a leading 10 pundits, up from seven just three days ago. This character study swept the SAG Awards on Sunday, with a leading three wins. It is in first place with leading odds of 6/1. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.)

The Shape of Water” got a big boost when it won Best Picture at the PGA Awards on Saturday. While that precursor prize went with a different film than the Oscars for the last two years, this guild previewed the Best Picture winner for the first six years of the expanded race. Guillermo del Toro‘s fantasy film now has the backing of eight pundits, up from five on Friday. That support gives it odd of 13/2 to win.

Greta Gerwig‘s coming-of-age charmer “Lady Bird” was shut out of the SAG Awards. It now has the votes of only four experts. However, the rest of our prognosticators are ranking it highly enough that it has odds of 7/1 to win Best Picture. That puts it just ahead of Jordan Peele‘s social satire “Get Out,” which still has the votes of five pundits. The rest of them are ranking it low enough on their lists that it sits only in fourth on our Best Picture chart, with odds of 15/2 to take the top Academy Award.

Right behind “Get Out” are three other films. Christopher Nolan‘s WWII epic “Dunkirk,” which led this race for much of awards season, now has only two votes and odds of only 8/1; Steven Spielberg‘s docudrama “The Post” still has one expert still backing it and odds of 9/1; and one pundit remains enamored with Luca Guadagnino‘s romance “Call Me By Your Name,” which has odds of 10/1.

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Oscar Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win:


1. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: 10 experts (6/1 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Kyle Buchanan (New York)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Grae Drake (Rotten Tomatoes)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times
Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)

2. “The Shape of Water”: Eight experts (13/2 odds)
Pete Hammond (Deadline)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Andrea Mandell (USA Today)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)

3. “Lady Bird”: Four experts (7/1 odds)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair)
Chris Rosen (EW)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)

4. “Get Out”: Five experts (15/2 odds)
Edward Douglas
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)

5. “Dunkirk”: Two experts (8/1 odds)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)

6. “The Post”: One experts (9/1 odds)
Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life)

7. “Call Me By Your Name”: One expert (10/1 odds)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

8. “Darkest Hour”: One expert (22/1 odds)

8. “The Florida Project”: (22/1 odds)

10. “Mudbound”: (25/1 odds)

2018 Oscars Best Picture: Experts Predictions

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions

More News from GoldDerby