Now that the Golden Globe nominations and Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations are out, we are one step closer to an Oscar rematch 13 years in the making: Amy Adams vs. Rachel Weisz. Back then, Weisz (“The Constant Gardener”) defeated Adams (“Junebug”) in the very category they’re contending in this year, Best Supporting Actress.
“Thank you so much to the academy for this tremendous, tremendous honor,” Weisz said in her speech (watch above — beware, this was the year they played music under everyone’s speech), before thanking her co-star Ralph Fiennes, her director Fernando Meirelles and producer Simon Channing Williams. “And of course, John le Carré, who wrote this unflinching, angry story, and he really paid tribute to the people who are willing to risk their own lives to fight injustice. They’re greater men and women than I.”
Weisz, who was pregnant with her first child, nearly swept the season that year for her performance as Tessa Quayle, an Amnesty International activist who was murdered in Kenya, in the adaptation of the le Carré novel of the same name. Upgraded to lead at BAFTA, she was beaten there by Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line”), and she lost Best Supporting Actress at the Critics’ Choice Awards to a tie between Michelle Williams (“Brokeback Mountain”) and Adams, who had a career breakthrough with her performance as a sweet, talkative pregnant woman in “Junebug.”
Since then, Adams has earned four more Oscar bids: Best Supporting Actress for “Doubt” (2008), “The Fighter” and “The Master” (2012), and Best Actress for “American Hustle” (2013). Weisz is still awaiting her sophomore nomination, which looks very, very likely to come next month for “The Favourite.” She’s currently in fourth place in our Best Supporting Actress odds, behind Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”), Adams (“Vice”) and her co-star Emma Stone; Claire Foy (“First Man”) is in fifth. Weisz and Adams both made the Globes and SAG Awards cuts as well.
If Weisz defeats Adams again, it’ll be shades of Hilary Swank (“Boys Don’t Cry,” 1999; “Million Dollar Baby,” 2004) beating Annette Bening (“American Beauty,” 1999; “Being Julia,” 2004) twice. And like Swank, Weisz would have a 2-for-2 Oscar record, while Adams would fall to 0-6, which would tie her with Thelma Ritter, Deborah Kerr and for now Glenn Close, who’s on track to receive her seventh bid with “The Wife.”
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on January 22.