“It’s a year where no one really knows what’s going to happen” in the Oscar race for Best Picture, warns Mike Hogan (Vanity Fair) in our video chat with Chris Rosen (EW). Watch our video above or listen to the audio podcast below. “There are a lot of contenders and you have to think very carefully, and very thoughtfully, about preferential balloting,” he adds.
That’s because the academy’s new voting method to determine what wins Best Picture has triggered upsets over the past several years. This year Mike believes it will result in an ambush by “Get Out” over frontrunners “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”
“There’s a rallying and a lot of passion around ‘Get Out,'” he says while noting that “a lot of people have issues with ‘Three Billboards’ and ‘Shape of Water’ is not really that many people’s favorite movie of the year.”
Chris Rosen agrees with Mike that there will be an upset for Best Picture, but one staged by “Lady Bird,” not “Get Out.”
“Of all of the nominees, ‘Lady Bird’ is always a consistent, solid number two or number one on the ballot,” he adds. “If you love ‘Get Out’ and you put it number one, you’d probably still love ‘Lady Bird’ and put it number two. I think ‘Lady Bird’ speaks to a current moment of #TimesUp and #MeToo, being about the female experience.”
See Mike’s predictions, Chris’ predictions and my picks. Compare them to rankings by 23 other Oscar experts. Click here to make your predictions and prove that you are not only smarter than our Experts, but maybe even the best Oscar prophet on the planet.
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