As Oscar nominations day approaches on January 23, everyone is frantically trying to guess what film will win in one of the most wildly unpredictable awards seasons ever. Those hoping to boost their chances at winning an office pool ahead of the Academy’s announcement early on that Tuesday need look no further. Gold Derby has polled predictions by Experts, Editors, and Users to find the top contenders in all 24 categories, from Best Picture to Best Live Action Short.
Beginning in 2009, the Academy bumped up the number of Best Picture nominees from 5 to 10 for the first time since 1943. Since 2011, the rules were revised so that between 5 and 10 titles could receive nominations. Films must earn 5% of votes in order to contend for the top prize.
So, which 5 to 10 movies are most likely to show up? Things are looking good for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” and “Lady Bird,” which won the Golden Globes for Best Film Drama and Best Film Comedy/Musical respectively. The same goes for “The Shape of Water,” which took the Critics’ Choice prize for Best Picture. “Dunkirk” and “Get Out” have stayed strong with bids at the guilds, BAFTA, Golden Globes, and Critics’ Choice, while “The Big Sick,” “Call Me By Your Name,” “Darkest Hour,” “The Florida Project,” “I, Tonya,” “Mudbound,” “Phantom Thread,” and “The Post” have picked up mentions here and there that have kept their heads above water.
Nominations for the 90th Academy Awards will be announced in a two-part, live presentation on Tuesday, January 23. The first will start at 5:22am PT/8:22am ET, and the second will begin at 5:38am PT/8:38am ET. The Oscar ceremony, hosted again by Jimmy Kimmel, will air on Sunday, March 4, on ABC.
Tour through our photo gallery to see what movies, filmmakers, and performers are most likely to receive Oscar nominations according to our combined Gold Derby odds.
Be sure to check out how our experts rank Oscar contenders in this and the other top races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories. Then take a look at the most up-to-date odds before you make make your Oscar nomination predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.