Oscars Best Picture: ‘A Star is Born’ still leads the race, but ‘Green Book’ is on the move say experts

Following the Thanksgiving break, “A Star is Born” has widened its lead over “Roma” in the Best Picture race at the Oscars according to the predictions of the 30 Experts at Gold Derby by a vote of 19 to 3 (it was 18 to 5 last week). One “Roma” backer [Andrea Mandell (USA Today)] switched to “A Star is Born,” while another [Anne Thompson (Indiewire)] is now the lone vote for “Black Panther.”

Green Book,” which did good business in its first weekend of wide release, now has the backing of five pundits (that’s up from just one at the beginning of the month). “The Favourite” and “Vice” have one Oscarologist apiece in their corner.  [See the most up-to-date Best Picture rankings by our 30 Experts.]

Although “A Star is Born” enjoys a clear majority of first-place votes from the experts, it is not that far ahead of “Roma” and “Green Book” on our Best Picture odds chart. It leads with odds of 13/2 to take home the top Academy Award while the other two are just behind at 15/2 and 8/1 respectively. This discrepancy is down to the relative rankings of these three films by all of the experts, including those that don’t have them in first place.  [See the latest racetrack odds.]

PREDICT the Oscar nominations now; change them until January 22

Those rankings are the reason why the three films with one expert apiece in their corner are all behind fourth-place contender “If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins‘ well-received follow-up to “Moonlight,” which has odds of 19/2.

“The Favourite” is fifth with 10/1 odds while Black Panther” is sixth at 11/1. Ahead of ninth-place ranked “Vice” at 13/1 are both “BlacKKKlansman” and “First Man” at 12/1. Rounding out the top 10 is “Widows” (37/1).

The 19 Experts touting “A Star is Born” are: Ed Douglas (Weekend Warrior),  Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Tim Gray (Variety), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Dave Karger (IMDb), Susan King (Gold Derby), Andrea Mandell (USA Today), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Wilson Morales (Black Film), Perri Nemiroff (Collider), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Chris Rosen (Radio.com), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby).

The three Experts rooting for “Roma” are: Erik Davis (Fandango), Alicia Malone (TCM) and Claudia Puig (KPCC).

The five for “Green Book” are: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Grae Drake (Rotten Tomatoes), Scott Mantz (Collider), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby) and Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere).

Tariq Khan (Fox TV) picks “The Favourite” and Michael Musto (NewNowNext) opts for “Vice.”

SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions

Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on January 22.

More News from GoldDerby