“A Star is Born” and “Roma” lead the Best Picture race according to the predictions of the 25 Oscar Experts at Gold Derby. Bradley Cooper‘s remake of the Hollywood classic has the backing of 13 of our industry insiders while 11 are forecasting a win for Alfonso Cuaron‘s family drama. Tim Gray of Variety is predicting that “Black Panther” will pull off an upset.
While “A Star is Born” has the edge among total number of experts, it is tied with “Roma” with odds of 7/1 to win Best Picture. That is because the latter is ranked slightly higher overall. Those rankings are why four films — “Green Book” (17/2), “First Man” and “The Favourite” (9/1), and “If Beale Street Could Talk” (10/1) — all have better odds than “Black Panther” at 12/1. See the most up-to-date Best Picture rankings by our 25 Experts.
“A Star is Born” and “Roma” have been trading off first place since they screened at the Venice film festival. They displaced early frontrunner Spike Lee‘s “BlacKkKlansman,” which is now down in eighth place. Buoyed by its popular choice wins at the Toronto and Middleburg film festivals “Green Book” is up in third.
“First Man” has lost its first-place votes but continues to be ranked high enough that it is tied for fourth with critics darling “The Favourite.” “If Beale Street Could Talk” and “Black Panther” remain in sixth and seventh place respectively. Rounding out the top 10 are Adam McKay‘s unseen “Vice” (20/1) and Steve McQueen‘s “Widows” (25/1). See the latest racetrack odds
The 13 Experts touting “A Star is Born” are: Ed Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Dave Karger (IMDb), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Perri Nemiroff (Collider), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (USA Today), Chris Rosen (Radio.com), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today) and Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby).
The 11 Experts rooting for “Roma” are: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Tariq Khan (Fox TV), Alicia Malone (TCM), Andrea Mandell (USA Today), Scott Mantz (Collider), Michael Musto (NewNowNext), Claudia Puig (KPCC), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere) and Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times).
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on January 22.