2018 Oscar predictions: Laurie Metcalf (‘Lady Bird’) closes gap on Allison Janney after Best Picture miss for ‘I, Tonya’

“I, Tonya”’s Best Picture snub could be Laurie Metcalf’s gain. The “Lady Bird” star had been losing ground to Allison Janney after the latter’s wins at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice and Screen Actors Guild Awards, but Metcalf has gotten an Oscar boost from “I, Tonya” missing the Best Picture field.

Metcalf is still in second behind Janney in our combined odds, but Best Supporting Actress has the closest gap between the top two of the four acting races. Of our 13 participating Experts, Michael Musto (“NewNowNext”) and Anne Thompson (“IndieWire”) are picking Metcalf with everyone else sticking with Janney. Paul Sheehan is the only one of our eight Editors selecting Metcalf, while eight of our Top 24 Users, who scored the best in last year’s predictions, are forecasting an upset for Lady Bird’s mom over Tonya Harding’s mom. Our forum users are also pegging Janney as the most vulnerable of the acting frontrunners.

SEE 2018 Oscar nominations: Full list of Academy Awards nominees in all 24 categories

After strong guild showings, including Producers Guild and Writers Guild nominations, “I, Tonya” appeared to be a last-minute crasher to the Best Picture race, among others like Best Original Screenplay and Best Hair and Makeup, but it disappointed with just three nominations for Janney, Margot Robbie in Best Actress and Tatiana S. Riegel in Best Editing.

In fact, in the Best Supporting Actress lineup, which includes Mary J. Blige (“Mudbound”), Lesley Manville (“Phantom Thread”) and Octavia Spencer (“The Shape of Water”), Janney hails from the film with the fewest amount of nominations. “Mudbound” received four; “Lady Bird,” five; “Phantom Thread,” six; and “The Shape of Water” leads all nominees with 13. Only Janney and Blige are from non-Best Picture nominees as well.

Do you think “I, Tonya”’s Best Picture miss gives Metcalf an advantage?

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Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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