After taking the Producers Guild Award two weeks ago, “The Shape of Water” will attempt to add the Directors Guild Award to its haul for Guillermo del Toro on Saturday. Del Toro is the odds-on favorite, according to our predictions, following his Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice wins. The PGA and DGA are powerful precursors — the PGA champ has gone one to win the Best Picture Oscar 19 out of the previous 28 times and the DGA has only mismatched with the Oscars seven times in its 69-year history — but how often has one film won both on the Oscar trail? And what does that mean for Oscar?
Since the PGA Awards’ inception 28 years ago, PGA and DGA have matched 21 times (this includes the PGA tie between “12 Years a Slave” and “Gravity,” the latter of which won DGA). Of these 21, 14 of them have gone on to win both Oscars for Best Picture and Best Director. This would bode well for “The Shape of Water,” which is No. 1 in both races in our odds, if it picks up DGA. The seven that didn’t convert both guild wins into Oscars are:
1. “Apollo 13” (1995): “Braveheart” won both Oscars; DGA champ Ron Howard was not nominated at the Oscars
2. “Saving Private Ryan” (1998): won Best Director, lost Best Picture to “Shakespeare in Love”
3. “Chicago” (2002): lost Best Director to “The Pianist”; won Best Picture
4. “Brokeback Mountain” (2005): won Best Director; lost Best Picture to “Crash”
5. “Argo” (2012): “Life of Pi” won Best Director; “Argo” won Best Picture; DGA champ Ben Affleck was not nominated at the Oscars
6. “Gravity” (2013): won Best Director; lost Best Picture to PGA co-winner “12 Years a Slave”
7. “La La Land” (2016): won Best Director; lost Best Picture to “Moonlight”
In four of these cases, the DGA winner still won the directing Oscar, and three of these splits occurred in the last five years with the preferential ballot in use and when there’s been more of a separation of church and state between picture and director at the Oscars.
But what if del Toro doesn’t win DGA, you ask? Good question. These are the seven times PGA and DGA went to different films:
1. 1989: “Driving Miss Daisy” won PGA; “Born on the Fourth of July” won DGA; “Driving Miss Daisy” director Bruce Beresford was not nominated at DGA or the Oscars
2. 1992: “The Crying Game” won PGA; “Unforgiven” won DGA
3. 2000: “Gladiator” won PGA; “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” won DGA
4. 2001: “Moulin Rouge!” won PGA; “A Beautiful Mind” won DGA
5. 2004: “The Aviator” won PGA; “Million Dollar Baby” won DGA
6. 2006: “Little Miss Sunshine” won PGA; “The Departed” won DGA
7. 2015: “The Big Short” PGA; “The Revenant” won DGA
Of these, four went on to win both Oscars — “Unforgiven,” “A Beautiful Mind,” “Million Dollar Baby” and “The Departed” — all dictated by the DGA winner, proving it’s the stronger of the two. So if someone manages to upset del Toro Saturday, you might be looking at a new Best Picture frontrunner.
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.