Rachel Brosnahan (‘The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel’) could resume Emmys’ streak of first-year champs in Best Comedy Actress

It’s hard to think back to a time when Julia Louis-Dreyfus wasn’t winning Emmys for “Veep,” but it does exist. Louis-Dreyfus started her six-year reign in Best Comedy Actress in 2012, winning for every season of the HBO satire so far. But before that and including her first “Veep” victory, the Emmy had gone to actresses from a freshman series seven out of eight times, which could bode well for Rachel Brosnahan (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”) this year.

The trend began in 2005 when Felicity Huffman upset her co-stars Teri Hatcher, who had won the Golden Globe and SAG, and Marcia Cross for “Desperate Housewives”’ breakout first season. Louis-Dreyfus won in 2006 for her CBS sitcom “The New Adventures of Old Christine,” a midseason replacement. “Ugly Betty” herself America Ferrera completed her freshman sweep of the Globe, SAG and Emmy the following year. 2008 was the only time in those eight years that the champ didn’t hail from a first-year show: Tina Fey won for the second season of “30 Rock.”

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The next two years saw Showtime dramedy leads Toni Collette (“United States of Tara”) and Edie Falco (“Nurse Jackie”) triumph (“Nurse Jackie” had aired two seasons by the time the Emmys rolled around in August 2010, but Falco submitted the pilot). And the last non-JLD champ was Melissa McCarthy (“Mike & Molly”), who prevailed in 2011 after a big year that included “Bridesmaids.”

With Louis-Dreyfus out this year, Brosnahan is our odds-on favorite to claim the prize after her Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice victories, and her show’s good showing with the guilds. The only hiccup was at SAG, which snubbed the Amazon series altogether, but SAG is notoriously late to the party, so it’s not a fatal blow.

Among our other current predicted nominees, Alison Brie (“GLOW”) is the only other potential nominee from a freshman show. Unlike “Mrs. Maisel,” “GLOW” over-performed with SAG, nabbing four nominations.

Allison Janney (“Mom”), Tracee Ellis Ross (“Black-ish”), and “Grace and Frankie”’s Lily Tomlin and Jane Fonda are our other predicted nominees — all of whose shows are at least four seasons old. But because of Louis-Dreyfus’ utter domination for the better part of a decade, it’s hard to say which way voters will go without her in the mix. Maybe they will want to award the bridesmaids before a brand new bride?

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And now we move from film to television awards! Be sure to make your Emmy predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before nominees are announced on July 12. And join in the fun debate over the 2018 Emmy taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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