“I don’t buy this ‘Get Out’ thing,” says Gold Derby’s fearless leader Tom O’Neil about Editor Marcus James Dixon‘s bold prediction asserting that the acclaimed horror satire will win the top prize for its ensemble cast at the SAG Awards on Sunday night, January 21. Dixon was one of the few pundits who foresaw the upset victory by “Hidden Figures” last year and he thinks “Get Out” has the same profile: a critically cheered box office hit with a diverse cast. And this same weekend, on January 20, “Get Out” could also be the surprise winner for Best Picture at the Producers Guild Awards, so the entire awards race could be flipped on its head by Monday morning.
Are we crazy to think so? O’Neil battled it out with Editor Daniel Montgomery and contributor Amanda Spears in a recent slugfest. Watch it above, or scroll down to the bottom of this post to listen to the podcast version.
O’Neil admits there might be some truth to the “Get Out” theory. He explains, “If you look through the ensemble history, the movies that are most widely seen tend to do better … I’ve been consistently wrong about ‘Get Out’ throughout this awards season. It keeps popping up everywhere. I’d better really take this seriously.” Still, O’Neil thinks “Get Out” lacks the snob appeal required to impress the Hollywood elite. will awards voters write it off as a popcorn movie?
“I don’t think snob-appeal is an issue at the SAG Awards,” Montgomery argues. “They’re much more populist.” SAG-AFTRA voters are a large organization comprising around 120,000 voters, and they have given their top awards to crowd-pleasing movies and TV shows other top awards groups didn’t, like “The Birdcage” (awarded at the 1997 ceremony), “The Full Monty” (1998), and “The Help” (2012) on the big screen, and “CSI” (2005), “Grey’s Anatomy” (2007), and “Glee” (2010) on the small screen.
So let’s say Dixon is right and “Get Out” is the surprise winner for its ensemble cast. If it also manages to win at the PGA Awards is it suddenly unstoppable at the Oscars? “You have to look at the films that made a lot of money with a little budget,” says Spears about the more-bang-for-your-buck success stories that could especially appeal to Hollywood producers. “Get Out” certainly fits that bill, produced for less than $5 million and grossing more than $250 million worldwide. If it does win both, Spears says, “You’re going to see a lot of people, including myself, switch [to ‘Get Out’ for the Oscar] real quick.”
What do you think? Have we officially gone mad? See Tom O’Neil’s SAG Awards predictions right here, Daniel Montgomery’s right here, and Amanda Spears’s right here. When all of Gold Derby predictions are combined, these racetrack odds are created.
Below: Audio podcast version of the chat. Do a search for GoldDerby at iTunes to subscribe to our podcast channel.
Be sure to make your SAG predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on January 21. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 SAG Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.