Stephan James (‘Homecoming’) vs. Matthew Rhys (‘The Americans’) at the Golden Globes: Can the soldier beat the spy?

Are we underestimating Stephan James (“Homecoming”) at the Golden Globes? Matthew Rhys (“The Americans”) is the front-runner to win Best TV Drama Actor according to our latest racetrack odds, but several of our Experts, Editors and top users say James will come out on top.

James stars in “Homecoming” as a soldier trying to return to civilian life after traumatic experiences at war. He’s being treated by a caseworker (Julia Roberts) at a facility that may not be what it appears. As of this writing James is backed by two of the Expert journalists we’ve polled: Gold Derby’s own Joyce Eng and Tom O’Neil. He’s also predicted by a plurality of Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby: Marcus James Dixon and myself, in addition to Eng and O’Neil.

And while our top users overwhelmingly favor Rhys for his last season as undercover KGB spy Philip Jennings on “The Americans,” James is supported by two of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Globe TV winners, and three of our All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ results. So the young actor has notable support from all of our prediction groups.

James is helped by the fact that “Homecoming” is tied as the most nominated drama series at these awards with three bids: Best TV Drama Series and lead acting noms for Roberts and James. But “The Americans” has the exact same nominations, so maybe it has just as much support from the Hollywood Foreign Press — or even more support.

But James has a couple of things Rhys doesn’t have. First, “Homecoming” is a brand new show, which Globe voters tend to prefer. Second, James has an additional starring role this fall in the movie “If Beale Street Could Talk,” which the Globes nominated for Best Film Drama. James was only nominated for “Homecoming,” so the HFPA could use this award as an opportunity to honor him for both performances in what has been a breakthrough season for the 25-year-old actor.

So who do you think will win: the soldier or the spy?

Be sure to make your Golden Globe predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced on January 6. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 Golden Globes taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

More News from GoldDerby