Last season, Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) ended a 26-year Oscar drought by becoming the first co-stars to be nominated in Best Supporting Actor since “Bugsy” stars Harvey Keitel and Ben Kingsley. But one category that’s never been hurting for co-star nominees is Best Supporting Actress. A whopping 34 films have produced multiple nominees in the category, and it very well looks like we’ll hit 35 next year if “The Favourite” stars Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz make the cut.
Now that Fox Searchlight has solidified Stone’s and Weisz’s placements in supporting, and Olivia Colman‘s in lead, the former two are in fourth and fifth place in our Oscar odds, behind Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”), Amy Adams (“Vice”) and Claire Foy (“First Man”). It would be the ninth time this century and the first time in seven years a pair of co-stars competed against each other.
Here are the co-star vs. co-star face-offs since 2000 with the winner in parentheses:
1. “Almost Famous” (2000): Kate Hudson and Frances McDormand (Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock”)
2. “Gosford Park” (2001): Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith (Jennifer Connelly for “A Beautiful Mind”)
3. “Chicago” (2002): Queen Latifah and Catherine Zeta-Jones (Zeta-Jones)
4. “Babel” (2006): Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi (Jennifer Hudson for “Dreamgirls”)
5. “Doubt” (2008): Amy Adams and Viola Davis (Penelope Cruz for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”)
6. “Up in the Air” (2009): Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick (Mo’Nique for “Precious”)
7. “The Fighter” (2010): Amy Adams and Melissa Leo (Leo)
8. “The Help” (2011): Jessica Chastain and Octavia Spencer (Spencer)
Three of these people beat their co-stars, including the last two. Out of all 34 instances, 12 people have won against co-stars, or 35.29 percent, which is the highest success rate of all the acting categories (Best Actor is 4/12 for 33.3 percent; Best Actress, 1/5 for 20 percent; Best Supporting Actor, 6/18 for 33.3 percent).
It’s still early, but while Stone and Weisz are predicted to be nominated, neither is expected to win right now. In most co-star duels, support needs to coalesce around one of them from the beginning, and in the case of “The Favourite,” which boasts three female leads, the consensus, uh, favorite of the film is Colman. As the tempestuous Queen Anne, whose affection and approval Stone’s and Weisz’s characters are vying for, Colman has received the best notices of the three and has already won Best Actress at the Venice Film Festival, which does not have supporting categories.
Plus, Stone and Weisz are seeking their second Oscars, which will be harder to win with someone in the race like Adams, who’d be on her sixth nomination with no wins. Weisz, of course, beat Adams in this category 13 years ago for “The Constant Gardener” when Adams was on her first bid with “Junebug.” And Stone took home Best Actress for “La La Land” two seasons ago, when Adams was infamously snubbed for “Arrival.”
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on January 22.