How many of the 10 ACE Eddie Awards nominees will make the cut at the Oscars?

The American Cinema Editors guild, which announced nominations for the Eddie Awards on Jan. 7, has a good track record as a predictor of the Academy Awards winner for Best Picture (17 out of the last 28). And it has a great one for forecasting who will win Best Film Editing at the Oscars (21 of the last 28). Not surprisingly, it is also fairly prescient when it comes to predicting the five Film Editing Oscar nominations.

In 1992, the ACE Eddie Awards went from three to five nominees (matching that of the Oscars) and in 2000 it split the award in two, with five nominees for each of drama and comedy/musical. Over the past 26 years, 115 of the 130 Oscar nominees for Film Editing had first reaped a Golden Eddie bid; that is an accuracy rate of 88%.

Among this year’s ACE Eddie nominees is our Oscar frontrunner for Best Film Editing, “Roma,”along with the other four films we’re predicting to reap bids in that race: “A Star is Born,” “The Favourite,” “First Man” and “Vice.” “Roma” as well as “A Star is Born” and “First Man” contend here in the drama race, which is rounded out by “BlacKkKlansman” and “Bohemian Rhapsody.” Facing off against “The Favourite” and “Vice” on the comedy side are “Crazy Rich Asians,” “Deadpool 2” and “Green Book.” (See the full list of nominations)

Last year, all five of the Oscar nominees for Best Film Editing — “Baby Driver,””Dunkirk,” “I, Tonya,” “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” — were first in contention at the ACE awards. “Dunkirk” cutter Lee Smith won with both groups.

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Likewise in 2017, all five of the Oscar nominees  — “Arrival,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “Hell or High Water,” “La La Land,”  and “Moonlight” — were cited first by the guild. John Gilbert won the Oscar for cutting “Hacksaw Ridge,” despite having lost the Golden Eddie to Joe Walker for his work on “Arrival.” Tom Cross had picked up the ACE award on the comedy/musical side for “La La Land.”

In 2016, two of the Oscar nominees for Best Film Editing — “Mad Max: Fury Road” and “The Big Short” — prevailed here first, winning the drama and comedy Eddie awards. Eventual Oscar champ “Mad Max: Fury Road” edged out two Oscar rivals — “The Revenant” and “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” — as well as “The Martian” and “Sicario.” “The Big Short” prevailed over “Ant-Man,” “Joy,” “Me and Earl and the Dying Girl” and “Trainwreck.” The fifth Oscar nominee — “Spotlight” — was snubbed by the guild.

In 2015, all five Oscar nominees first reaped Eddie bids: eventual Oscar champ “Whiplash” as well as ACE champs “Boyhood” and “Grand Budapest,” plus “American Sniper” and “The Imitation Game.”  In 2014 four of the Eddie nominees made the cut at the Oscars (“Dallas Buyers Club” got the fifth slot).

In both 2012 and in 2013 five of the Eddie nominees comprised the Oscar slate. In 2011, four Eddie nominees contended at the Oscars (“127 Hours” got the fifth slot) while in 2010, only three of five ACE drama nominees — “Avatar,” “District 9” and “The Hurt Locker” — reaped Oscar bids with “Inglorious Basterds” and “Precious” added to the mix.

Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name stars can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 22. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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