2019 Oscar Best Picture predictions by experts: ‘Roma’ widens lead after Alfonso Cuaron wins at DGA Awards

Alfonso Cuaron just won the second DGA Award of his career for his memoir “Roma.” Five years ago, he picked up the Best Director prize from his guild for “Gravity” before claiming that same award at the Oscars. However, he saw that film go down to defeat in the Best Picture race to “12 Years a Slave.” According to our experts, “Roma” will finally win him that top Academy Award.

“Roma” has widened its lead and is now the pick for Best Picture by a whopping 16 of our 19 pundits. Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman” has the backing of just one expert while two tout Ryan Coogler‘s “Black Panther.” None of the other five nominees is predicted to prevail in the top race at the 91st Academy Awards.

That support for “Roma” gives it odds of 39/10 to take home the Best Picture award while PGA winner “Green Book” has odds of 13/2 to pull off an upset. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.) And see how our experts rank Oscar contenders in the other 23 races according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the eight nominees to win:


1. “Roma: 16 experts (39/10 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Eric Deggans (NPR)
Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Susan King (Gold Derby)
Andrea Mandell (USA Today)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)
Claudia Puig (KPCC)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Susan Wloszczyna(Gold Derby)

2. “Green Book”: (13/2 odds)

3. “BlacKkKlansman”: 1 expert (7/1 odds)
Tim Gray (Variety)

3. “The Favourite”: (7/1 odds)

4. “Black Panther”: 2 experts (8/1 odds)
Matthew Jacobs (HuffPo)
Christopher Rosen (TVGuide.com)

4. “A Star is Born”: (8/1 odds)

5. “Vice”: (9/1 odds)

6. “Bohemian Rhapsody”: (10/1 odds)

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on February 24. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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