2019 Oscar forecasts by film: ‘Roma’ will win Best Picture, but expect the academy to spread the wealth

It used to be that when the Oscars like a movie they would back the truck up and inundate it with trophies: 11 wins for “Titanic” (1997) and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003), eight for “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008). But we don’t think this will be one of those years. According to the combined predictions of more than 6,000 registered Gold Derby users as of this writing, “Roma” will be the biggest winner, but we’re only betting on it to claim 4 awards out of its 10 nominations. Scroll down to see our predicted winners in all 24 categories, arranged by film.

Actually, a Best Picture winner with four total victories is consistent with recent Oscar trends. While there have been recent films with huge Oscar hauls — seven wins for “Gravity” (2013), six wins for “Mad Max: Fury Road” (2015) — the films that have claimed Best Picture in the last decade have achieved more modest sums. “The Artist” (2011) won five. “The King’s Speech” (2010), “Birdman” (2014) and “The Shape of Water” (2017) won four each. “Argo” (2012), “12 Years a Slave” (2013) and “Moonlight” (2016) won three apiece. “Spotlight” (2015) only won two.

Since we’re not forecasting any film to win more than four awards this year, that means we can look forward to a lot of different winners. Our predictions in 24 categories are divided between 16 movies. Besides “Roma,” only four other films are projected to win multiple prizes: “The Favourite” (3 wins out of 10 nominations), “Bohemian Rhapsody” (2 wins out of 5 nominations), “If Beale Street Could Talk” (2 wins out of 3 nominations) and “Vice” (2 wins out of 8 nominations).

Alas, if our forecasts are right, the historic “Black Panther” won’t get any of the wealth being spread around. It’s not tipped to win any of its seven categories, which would make it the year’s biggest shutout. Ironically, we think it will be “Avengers: Infinity War” that wins the Marvel Cinematic Universe its first ever Oscar on that film’s only nomination: Best Visual Effects.

Do you think our picks are spot on, or are we missing the mark? You can make or update your own predictions here in our predictions center anytime you like between now and the Oscars telecast on Sunday night, February 24.

Best Picture
Best Director — Alfonso Cuaron
Best Cinematography
Best Foreign Language Film

Best Original Screenplay
Best Costume Design
Best Production Design

Best Actor — Rami Malek
Best Sound Mixing

Best Supporting Actress — Regina King
Best Score

Best Film Editing
Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Best Visual Effects

Best Animated Short

Best Documentary Short

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Sound Editing

Best Documentary Feature

Best Supporting Actor — Mahershala Ali

Best Live Action Short

Best Animated Feature

Best Song — “Shallow”

Best Actress — Glenn Close

Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced on February 24.

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