Glenn Close (“The Wife”) is the favorite to take home her first Screen Actors Guild Award for film at Sunday’s ceremony, but it’s far from a done deal. Lady Gaga (“A Star Is Born”) has 19/5 odds to Close’s 17/5 in our predictions to pull out the win.
Among our pundits predicting the SAG Awards, Close has the support of 13 Experts, seven Editors and eight Top 24 users. Gaga has three Experts, two Editors and eight Top 24 users backing her. Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) is the only other contender with win predictions, from one Expert, Claudia Puig (KFCC), and four Top 24 Users.
Gaga had been the lead actress frontrunner since nominations were announced — you know, back when we thought “A Star Is Born” would, if not dominate, at least win a couple of big awards. Close overtook the daughter of her close pal following her Golden Globe upset over Gaga earlier this month, which she capped with a killer speech. They tied for Best Actress at the Critics’ Choice Awards a week later.
Conventional wisdom says this is Close’s to lose as she cruises to her overdue Oscar on her seventh nomination. She certainly has a lot of things working for her: the overdue narrative, that moving speech that surely swayed some voters, and her legendary status — SAG likes to award acting icons it never had a chance to when they were in their primes.
But Gaga has some advantages too. The SAG and AFTRA merger in 2012 means recording artists and DJs, aka people like or who have worked with Gaga — are voting members now. Will they give her a boost? “A Star Is Born,” the nominations leader with four, is also the most successful and widely seen film in the category, which could go a long way with a populist group like SAG. And a win would also ensure it doesn’t become the sixth film to go 0-4.
Or maybe, just maybe, they’ll tie again. There’s been one tie in SAG Awards history: Kim Basinger (“L.A. Confidential”) and Gloria Stuart (“Titanic”) shared Best Supporting Actress 21 years ago.
Emily Blunt (“Mary Queen of Scots”) and Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”) round out our predictions.
Be sure to make your SAG Awards predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on Jan. 27. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 SAG Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.