2020 Grammy predictions: ‘A Star is Born’ could be the first Album of the Year soundtrack winner in 18 years

Soundtrack albums are rare when it comes to Grammy winners for Album of the Year. Only three have ever won the top prize, and none in 18 years. Could “A Star is Born” end that drought?

To date, the three honored soundtracks were “Saturday Night Fever” (1979), “The Bodyguard” (1994) and most recently “O Brother, Where Art Thou?” (2002). Other movie music compilations have been nominated over the years but haven’t won, including “West Side Story” (1962), “The Sound of Music” (1966), “Grease” (1979), “Flashdance” (1984), “Beauty and the Beast” (1993), “Waiting to Exhale” (1997) and “Black Panther” (2019).

The good news for “A Star is Born” is that we already know the recording academy likes it. Its centerpiece ballad, Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper‘s duet “Shallow,” won two Grammys last year and was also nominated for Record of the Year and Song of the Year. But the whole soundtrack album wasn’t eligible until now because of the Grammys’ unique eligibility period. Last year’s deadline was September 30, 2018: “Shallow” was released as a single three days before that cutoff, while the rest of the album dropped five days after.

Will the long wait for awards consideration help it or hurt it? “Shallow” won its Grammys at the peak of enthusiasm for the film and its music; it ended up sweeping the awards season, including the Oscar for Best Original Song. So on one hand, maybe it missed its window of opportunity. Will it feel like yesterday’s news by the time the Grammys vote for their winners? On the other hand, the intense “Star is Born” media saturation might have worked against it. So much attention often leads to a backlash, so maybe a few extra months of absence will make Grammy voters’ hearts grow fonder.

Of course, the Grammy nominations haven’t even been announced yet (they’ll be unveiled November 20), so we don’t know for sure that “A Star is Born” will make the cut, but more than 2,000 Gold Derby users have given us their predictions so far, and they’re pretty confident it will. As of this writing it ranks third with 12/1 odds in a race that will have eight nominees, so it’s looking like a pretty safe bet. And three of our Top 24 Users currently think it will win. Those top users got the highest scores predicting last year’s nominations, so their forecasts carry greater weight. Are they right?

Be sure to make your Grammy predictions so that record executives and top name stars can see how their music is faring in our Grammy odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until nominations are announced. And join in the fierce debate over the 2020 Grammys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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