Alex Borstein has best odds at the Emmys, but Experts say Olivia Colman will be the surprise ‘Favourite’ yet again

Alex Borstein (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”) is the defending Emmy champion for Best Comedy Supporting Actress for her role as brash comedy manager Susie Myerson. Emmy voters love repeat winners in this race (e.g. Doris Roberts for “Everybody Loves Raymond,” Julie Bowen for “Modern Family”), Borstein plays the kind of scene-stealing role that often wins multiple comedy Emmys, and “Maisel” is the top laffer this year with 20 nominations. So she’ll definitely win again, right? Not so fast.

As of this writing Borstein is the front-runner to win with leading odds of 9/2 based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users. But the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from top media outlets give the slight edge to her rival Olivia Colman (“Fleabag”). That would be familiar territory for Colman, who pulled off another stunning upset earlier this year when the “Favourite” star beat Glenn Close (“The Wife”) for the Best Actress Oscar.

Colman is predicted to win by 14 out of 30 Experts: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Jen Chaney (Vulture), Eric Deggans (NPR), Lynn Elber (Associated Press), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Pete Hammond (Deadline), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Kelly Lawler (USA Today), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly), Jazz Tangcay (Awards Daily), Kaitlin Thomas (TVGuide.com), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)

Another 12 Experts say it will be Borstein again: Debbie Day (Rotten Tomatoes), Ed Martin (Media Village), Wilson Morales (BlackFilm), Mary Murphy (Gold Derby), Nikki Novak (Fandango), Christopher Rosen (TVGuide.com), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Michael Schneider (Variety), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Ben Travers (IndieWire), Ken Tucker (Yahoo) and Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby).

Three Experts are betting on Colman’s co-star Sian Clifford: Michael Ausiello (TVLine), Chris Harnick (E!) and Robert Rorke (New York Post).

And Matt Webb Mitovich (TVLine) is going out on a limb for two-time past winner Kate McKinnon (“Saturday Night Live”).

The Emmys liked Colman even before she caught on at the Oscars: they nominated her for her supporting role in the limited series “The Night Manager” in 2016. But the increased notoriety of her surprise Oscar win could give her a boost here, in addition to the strong support for “Fleabag” overall (11 total nominations) and of course Colman’s standout performance as Fleabag’s deliciously passive-aggressive godmother-turned-stepmom.

However, Borstein is already a proven winner in this race, and the actors branch of the television academy isn’t any less fond of “Maisel” this time around. The show has already won two performance prizes: guest-acting awards for Jane Lynch and Luke Kirby at the Creative Arts Awards on September 15.

Then again, Colman and Borstein may both be out of luck if they split votes with their co-stars. Colman is up against the aforementioned Clifford, who had more screentime this season on “Fleabag.” And Borstein could be spoiled by “Maisel’s” Marin Hinkle, a TV vet who may be considered overdue by the academy. In a race with votes divided between eight nominees, it wouldn’t take much to steer the category in a wildly unexpected direction. You could theoretically win this award with as little as 13% of the vote, so watch out for McKinnon, Anna Chlumsky (“Veep”), Sarah Goldberg (“Barry”) and even underdog Betty Gilpin (“GLOW”). This contest could turn on a dime.

Be sure to make your Emmy predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before winners are announced on September 22. And join in the fun debate over the 2019 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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