Don’t worry, Antonio Banderas: You can still win at the Oscars despite SAG snub, just ask Regina King

Fear not, Antonio Banderas. Sure, you were snubbed by the SAG Awards for your performance in “Pain and Glory,” but that performance had already won you Best Actor prizes from New York and Los Angeles film critics, plus nominations at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. A career-first Oscar bid and even win is still within your grasp, so you and your fans should rest easy.

Banderas earned raves for his performance in Pedro Almodovar‘s Spanish-language drama, playing a movie director closely modeled on Almodovar himself. The actor’s awards campaign kicked off at the Cannes Film Festival, where he claimed their Best Actor award. But the Screen Actors Guild overlooked him in favor of Christian Bale (“Ford v Ferrari”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”), Adam Driver (“Marriage Story”), Taron Egerton (“Rocketman”) and Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”).

SEE ‘Pain and Glory’ could help Pedro Almodovar make a glorious Oscars return to writing and directing races

But while SAG often correlates strongly with the Oscars, their lineup rarely matches the academy’s five-for-five. In recent years Willem Dafoe (“At Eternity’s Gate”), Daniel Day-Lewis (“Phantom Thread”), Matt Damon (“The Martian”), Bradley Cooper (“American Sniper”), Bale (“American Hustle”), DiCaprio (“The Wolf of Wall Street”), Phoenix (“The Master”), Gary Oldman (“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”) and Javier Bardem (“Biutiful”) all cracked the Best Actor lineup at the Oscars after getting skunked by the guild.

It certainly helps that Banderas won over critics in both New York and Los Angeles, quite a feat considering the two coasts rarely agree on anything. Since 2010 Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”), Timothee Chalamet (“Call Me by Your Name”), Dafoe (“The Florida Project”), Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”), Isabelle Huppert (“Elle”), J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”), Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”), Jessica Chastain (“The Help”) and Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech”) all earned Oscar bids after triumphing at the two groups.

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Of those, Huppert and King were both snubbed at SAG just like Banderas was, which didn’t prevent Huppert from earning a nom at the Oscars, and it didn’t stop King from eventually winning the Best Supporting Actress prize from the motion picture academy, so the SAG shortfall may not hurt Banderas after all.

PREDICT the Oscars now; change them until January 13

Our Experts certainly think he’s still in good shape. 22/31 still have him in their Best Actor lineup, giving him a fourth placing ranking in our racetrack with odds of 13/2. One Expert, Tim Gray (Variety), even has him winning. So don’t throw that acceptance speech away just yet, Antonio.

Be sure to make your Oscar nominee predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before nominees are announced on January 13. And join in the fun debate over the 2020 Academy Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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