There’s a chance that all eight Best Picture nominees end up with at least one Oscar on Sunday. Based on our combined odds, it really depends on if “Black Panther,” which is not leading in any of its seven categories, can sniff out a win. And if it manages to win the biggest prize of them all, Best Picture, it’ll be the first film to do so in 86 years without directing, acting or writing nominations.
The last film to accomplish this rare feat was “Grand Hotel” (1931/32) at the 5th Academy Awards in November 1932. The film, of course, is the only one to claim Best Picture without any other nominations. The only other Best Picture champ without above-the-line nominations was the very first one, “Wings” (1927/28), but it had another bid, Best Engineering Effects, which it also won.
So basically it’s practically unheard of to nab Best Picture without nominations in those major categories — you can even write off those first two instances as quirks or growing pains of a nascent awards group before it settled into the Oscars we know and love/love to hate. Other films have won Best Picture without directing, acting or writing wins, like “Rebecca” (1940) or “The Greatest Show on Earth” (1952), but they were shortlisted in at least one of those categories.
In this decade, “The King’s Speech” (2010) took Best Picture with directing, acting and writing victories. Four champs — “The Artist” (2011), “12 Years a Slave” (2013), “Birdman” (2014) and “Moonlight” (2016) — carried two of the three, and three winners — “Argo” (2012), “Spotlight” (2015) and “The Shape of Water” (2017) — bagged one.
Needless to say, history is not on “Black Panther”‘s side, but maybe the preferential ballot is. “Black Panther” probably would not win in a plurality vote, but, as a massive, groundbreaking phenomenon, it could garner second and third place votes on enough ballots to push it over the line in one of the most unclear races in years. Plus, it won ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, and actors make up the academy’s largest branch.
“Black Panther” is currently in fifth place in our odds, trailing “Roma,” “Green Book,” “BlacKkKlansman” and “The Favourite” — all but “Green Book,” which missed director, have directing, acting and writing bids. Three of our Experts, Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Brian Truitt (USA Today) and Christopher Rosen (TV Guide), are calling a “Black Panther” upset. “A Star Is Born,” “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “Vice” round out the field of eight.
PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until Feb. 24
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own 2019 Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on Feb. 24.
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