“Black Panther” will get the second most Oscar nominations on Tuesday (January 22). We’re predicting that this blockbuster Marvel movie will reap 10 bids: Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Production Design, Best Score, Best Song (“All the Stars”), Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing and Best Visual Effects. That will put it just one nomination behind “A Star is Born.”
But how many Academy Awards will “Black Panther” win on February 24? We are predicting that this smash hit will come up short in all but one of its Oscar races: we think it will only win Best Visual Effects.
“Black Panther” is all but certain to overcome the academy bias against superhero movies and be one of the nominees for Best Picture. That is certainly an achievement and a honor that was denied to the likes of “The Dark Knight” and all 17 of the previous entries in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. But we don’t think Ryan Cooogler‘s movie will be ranked high enough on the preferential ballot by a sufficient number of academy voters to take home this top prize.
That we don’t expect Coogler to number among the five nominees for Best Director hurts his film’s chances in the big race. Add in the fact that we expect it only to contend in one other marquee category — Best Adapted Screenplay – and its hopes of prevailing for Best Picture are slim. We are predicting that “BlacKkKlansman” writer/director Spike Lee will win his first competitive Oscar for his adaptation of Ron Stallworth‘s memoir.
Among the seven below-the-line races in which we expect “Black Panther” to be an also-ran, it is tantalizing close to winning five and ranks second on our charts.
We expect it to lose makeup & hairstyling to the folks who transformed Christian Bale into Dick Cheney at various ages and stages of his life in “Vice.”
As is often the case at the Oscars, we are predicting that one film — “The Favourite” — will win both Best Costume Design and Best Production Design.
The sound of “Black Panther” is muted next to the achievements of the sound editors who worked on “First Man” and captured the aural intensity of the Apollo XI launch and landing.
And while Kendrick Lamar and SZA had a top 10 hit with the song “All the Stars,” they can’t compete against “Shallow,” the chart-topping tune from “A Star is Born” that was sung and co-written by Lady Gaga.
Likewise, we don’t expect the sound mixers who worked on “Black Panther” to be able to overcome the academy’s love of tune-filled films in this race. We think that “A Star is Born” will win Best Sound Mixing as have other musicals such as “Chicago,” “Dreamgirls,” “Ray” and “Les Miserables.”
And we expect composer Justin Hurwitz (“First Man”) to continue his winning streak, having prevailed for Best Score at both the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice awards.
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on January 22.