Dua Lipa was our Grammy front-runner for Best New Artist before the nominations were announced, but then R&B breakout H.E.R. came out of nowhere with an Album of the Year bid for her self-titled compilation, so now she has moved out front in our New Artist forecasts. Can Dua Lipa overcome that deficit? She’s still the biggest hit-maker in the category, and voters often favor commercial success.
Dua Lipa only has two nominations this year, compared to five for H.E.R. In addition to Best New Artist, Lipa is up for Best Dance Recording for “Electricity” with Silk City, Diplo and Mark Ronson. That doesn’t seem like a lot of broad support from the recording academy, but it’s possible she would have done even better if her biggest hit had been eligible for consideration.
Her single “New Rules” was her first top-10 hit on the Billboard Hot 100. It has been certified triple platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America, and its music video has been viewed 1.6 billion times as of this writing. But even though the song achieved its peak success in 2018, it was actually released back in July 2017, too early to have competed in this Grammys cycle. It was such a ubiquitous hit that if it had been eligible this year it might have been nominated for Record of the Year and Song of the Year, especially with eight nomination slots available in both categories.
When you’re up for Best New Artist it doesn’t hurt to have the most nominations as H.E.R. does. But you don’t always need the most bids. In 2011 jazz artist Esperanza Spalding famously upset superstars Justin Bieber, Drake, Florence and the Machine, and Mumford and Sons on her only nomination. And in 2016 Meghan Trainor also won on her lone bid. So maybe Dua Lipa’s two bids are more than enough.
Of the Expert journalists we’ve polled thus far, Lyndsey Parker (Yahoo Music) and Adnan Virk (ESPN) think Dua Lipa is out front. So do 6 of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Grammy winners, and 5 of our All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ Grammy results. Overall, she ranks second in our predictions with odds of 5/1. She has “New Rules,” so don’t discount her.
Be sure to make your Grammy predictions so that Hollywood record executives and top name stars can see how their music is faring in our Grammy odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced on Sunday, February 10. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 Grammys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.