Most of our punditsphere has “Veep” winning the Best Comedy Series Emmy for the fourth and final time, with reigning champ “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” in second place, but there are a few dissenters in there. I have “Fleabag” winning, while Gold Derby contributor and my fellow stats geek Riley Chow has “Barry” claiming the top prize. But as we discussed in a new slugfest with Gold Derby’s own Tom O’Neil (watch above or listen below), our thought processes are actually not that different.
“In general, I feel like Joyce and I think along the same lines, so comedy series is a great example of that, where neither of us has the top two in the odds, which are ‘Veep’ and ‘The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,’ but our top two is the same. We both have ‘Fleabag’ and we both have ‘Barry’ in our top two,” Chow noted. “Even though we disagree in our orders, I feel like I generally understand where Joyce is coming from maybe more than I can understand where you’re coming from in your predictions, Tom.”
As we each explain, we can see both “Fleabag” and “Barry” prevailing (and yes, I really did switch to “Fleabag” because of FX Chairman John Landgraf), but Chow believes a series victory for either would mean a sweep in most of the other categories, including writing and directing. Our current odds have “Fleabag” snagging writing and “Barry” taking directing for their respective creators/stars Phoebe Waller-Bridge and Bill Hader; Chow has “Barry” winning both.
“I feel like Joyce’s predictions overall are being a bit too diplomatic. She’s predicting one show to win comedy series and she’s predicting that same show to lose comedy actress to ‘Veep,’ but she’s also predicting ‘Fleabag’ to lose comedy directing to ‘Barry,’ he said. “We’ve been seeing these sweeps happen in recent years that we didn’t see previously because voters are just ticking off their favorites and not putting a lot more thought into it. So I think that ‘Fleabag’ could absolutely win Best Comedy Series, but if it does, it’s going to go on a sweep like ‘The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel’ did last year and win eight trophies.”
While I agree a sweep is not out of the question, especially for the white-hot “Fleabag,” I had to point out that the writing-directing sweeps have been more common on the drama side than comedy since the new voting system was established in 2015. Last year was the first time drama writing and directing did not go to the same show and the first time that comedy writing and directing did go to the same show.
“Donald Glover won directing two years ago [for ‘Atlanta’], but ‘Master of None’ still won writing,” I said. “We’ve seen the writing and directing sweeps more so on the drama side in recent years. I do agree that if ‘Fleabag’ is going to win writing, which is still in No. 1, I think, in our odds, and if people love it that much, it could easily win directing because if, last year, ‘Teddy Perkins’ [from ‘Atlanta’] lost directing, then ‘ronny/lily’ [from ‘Barry’] can definitely lose directing.”
Check out the rest of our discussion for our thoughts on those sometimes revealing and at times not-so revealing below-the-line categories and why Chow is betting big on “GLOW” underdog Betty Gilpin in comedy supporting actress.
Be sure to make your Emmy predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before winners are announced on September 22. And join in the fun debate over the 2019 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.