Remember just three months ago when “Escape at Dannemora” was the overwhelming favorite to win Best Limited Series at the Emmys? Well, not anymore. The Showtime series is still slightly out front in our combined odds, but our pundits are as split as ever, as all five predicted nominees have backers. Not just that, but “Dannemora” and “When They See Us” have divided a majority of our Experts down the middle.
“Dannemora” and When They See Us” each have eight Experts seeing gold for it. Chris Harnick (E!), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly), Jen Chaney (Vulture), Ed Martin (Media Village), Lynn Elber (Associated Press), Ben Travers (IndieWire), Kelly Lawler (USA Today) and Anne Thompson (IndieWire) are predicting “Dannemora” to win. Directed by Ben Stiller, the show was the big winner with the guilds and the Golden Globes earlier this year, so it’s definitely the safest choice to go with.
Ava DuVernay‘s miniseries has support from Ken Tucker (Yahoo!), Mary Murphy (Gold Derby), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Robert Rorke (New York Post), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Matt Webb Mitovich (TVLine) and Glenn Whipp (LA Times).
“When They See Us,” which is in third place in our overall odds, has come on strong since it debuted on Netflix on May 31, aka the final day of Emmy eligibility. A dramatization of the story of the Central Park Five, the critically acclaimed series has vocal support from viewers and the industry alike, and certainly it feels like its biggest concern is hoping it didn’t come out too late before voters could watch and mark their ballots.
But “When They See Us” isn’t the only show “Dannemora” has to worry about. “Chernobyl,” which was also a late entry, having premiered May 6, has skyrocketed to second place. It has four Experts picking it to win: Kaitlin Thomas (TV Guide), Eric Deggans (NPR), Debbie Day (Rotten Tomatoes) and myself. Like “When They See Us,” the HBO series is also a dramatization about a horrific event in the ’80s that has profound resonance today. It’s become a global phenomenon and is now the top-rated show on IMDb, which, it’s safe to say, absolutely no one expected.
SEE Perfect 10? HBO seeks to tie this Emmy record with a ‘Chernobyl’ victory
The other two predicted nominees are “Fosse/Verdon,” which is in fourth place, and the fifth-place “Sharp Objects.” Both have two Experts backing it: Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby) and Stacey Wilson Hunt (Gold Derby) for the former, and Nikki Novak (Fandango) and Thelma Adams (Gold Derby) for the latter.
Can “Dannemora” hang on to its frontrunner status? We’ll obviously know more after nominations, but after what appeared to be an easy victory for the prison break drama, this race has gotten very, very interesting in the last month.
PREDICT the Emmys now; change them until July 16
Be sure to make your Emmy predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before nominations are announced on July 16. And join in the fun debate over the 2019 Emmy taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.
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