“There’s just been too much attrition because of ‘Game of Thrones’,” Amanda Spears remarks to Charlie Bright and me at the top of our Emmy slugfest about our nomination predictions for Best Drama Actor (00:10), Best Drama Actress (16:25), Best Drama Supporting Actress (19:55) and Best Drama Supporting Actor (29:00). With only seven of last year’s 25 nominees in these four categories eligible again this year, Spears is betting big on returning dramas like “Game of Thrones” and “This is Us” in the absence of dramas like “The Crown” and “The Handmaid’s Tale.”
I am actually predicting “This is Us” to be shut out of the lead and supporting categories, with Bright supporting my skepticism, “After the drop-off last year that we saw with ‘This is Us,’ for the people in the TV Academy, that trajectory is just going to keep on going that way.” I have “Succession” as a beneficiary, including nominations for lead Jeremy Strong and supporting Matthew Macfadyen, who both have 100/1 odds per Gold Derby’s combined predictions. Bright is further wary of perennial nominees like Jonathan Banks (ranking him sixth in his category after four nominations for his “Better Call Saul” role), Lena Headey (ranking her sixth in her category after four consecutive nominations) and Robin Wright (predicting her first snub for “House of Cards” after five nominations).
Make your Emmy predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until the nominations announcement on July 16. And join in the debate taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forum. Subscribe to our podcasts at either Google Play, iTunes, Libsyn, Spotify or Stitcher.