The ‘Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” star is one of five 2018 regular series acting winners who could go back to back, but while her road to the Best Comedy Actress Emmy last year was bump-free, she has a lot more roadblocks this year. For one, six-time champ Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”) is back, looking to go 7 for 7 for the HBO satire. Brosnahan and Louis-Dreyfus have never competed against each other at any major awards show, so there’s no data at all. JLD is the favorite to repeat in our combined odds, with Phoebe Waller-Bridge (“Fleabag”) in second and Brosnahan in third. Catherine O’Hara (“Schitt’s Creek”), Natasha Lyonne (“Russian Doll”) and Christina Applegate (“Dead to Me”) round out the six. Of note: Brosnahan is facing a completely different field than she did last year.
With 34 percent of the vote, Henry Winkler (“Veep”) is the next least likely to repeat. Winkler rode an overdue narrative wave last year to his first career Emmy, in Best Comedy Supporting Actor, but he has much stiffer competition this year, namely in the form of two co-stars, Anthony Carrigan and Stephen Root, who could split the vote with him. Winkler trails in third place in our odds behind Tony Shalhoub (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”) and Alan Arkin (“The Kominsky Method”), and is ahead of two-time champ Tony Hale (“Veep”), Root and Carrigan.
There is a large drop to third, and the result might also be slightly surprising: Peter Dinklage with 10 percent. The “Game of Thrones” star, who’s the only actor from the show who’s ever take home an Emmy certainly feels like a lock in Best Drama Supporting Actor — he’s the runaway favorite in our odds — as he’s already won three of these and is now going for a record fourth victory. But this is the first time he’s up against two co-stars, Nikolaj Coster-Waldau and Alfie Allen, which increases the possibility of a vote-split. Jonathan Banks (“Better Call Saul”) is in second in our predictions, followed by Coster-Waldau, Giancarlo Esposito (“Better Call Saul”), Michael Kelly (“House of Cards”), Allen and Chris Sullivan (“This Is Us”).
Next with 7 percent is “Maisel” star Alex Borstein, who just like last year, finds herself in a field of eight again in Best Comedy Supporting Actress. But unlike last year, she does have to contend with a co-star this time, Marin Hinkle. There’s also another possible vote-split between the “Fleabag” ladies, Olivia Colman and Sian Clifford. Borstein is still the favorite in our odds, ahead of Colman, Anna Chlumsky (“Veep”), two-time champ Kate McKinnon (“Saturday Night Live”), Sarah Goldberg (“Barry”), Clifford, Hinkle and Betty Gilpin (“GLOW”).
And with just 5 percent, the person fans think is most likely to win again is Bill Hader. The “Barry” creator/star surprised us last year with a Best Comedy Actor triumph, and the love for “Barry” has only risen this year (it has 17 nominations) for a stellar sophomore season. He’s way out in front in first place in our odds, followed by Ted Danson (“The Good Place”), Michael Douglas (“The Kominsky Method”), Eugene Levy (“Schitt’s Creek”), Don Cheadle (“Black Monday”) and Anthony Anderson (“Black-ish”).
Be sure to make your Emmy predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before winners are announced on September 22. And join in the fun debate over the 2019 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.