Will FKA Twigs finally win at the VMAs after 8 nominations, almost entirely in professional categories?

Strangely, FKA Twigs has been a staple of the MTV Video Music Awards in recent years, but hardly ever in categories audiences get to vote on. The offbeat British singer-songwriter has been nominated eight times, but almost all of those have been in the professional categories that aren’t decided by the public, but by music insiders. She has three nominations in those categories this year for “Cellophane” (watch it above). Will she be a first-time winner?

Her first three nominations came in 2015: Best New Artist for “Pendulum” and Best Visual Effects and Best Cinematography for “Two Weeks.” The New Artist nom was her only one to date where fans got to vote, and they picked Fetty Wap for his breakthrough video “Trap Queen” instead. Meanwhile, the Visual Effects prize went to Skrillex, Diplo and Justin Bieber‘s “Where Are U Now,” and Cinematography was awarded to Flying Lotus and Kendrick Lamar‘s “Never Catch Me.”

Then FKA Twigs was nominated twice for “M3LL155X”: Best Visual Effects and Best Choreography. But those awards went to Coldplay‘s “Up and Up” and Beyonce‘s “Formation,” respectively. Now she’s back three year’s later with “Cellophane,” which earned her her third nomination for Visual Effects, her second for Choreography and her very first for Best Direction. Perhaps that’s a good sign for her this year.

“Cellophane” is a predictably trippy video, featuring an elaborate poll dance that leads her through a portal into some other dimension. But based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users, we rank her fifth for Best Direction with odds of 13/2; though fans don’t get to vote here, the fact that MTV didn’t also nominate “Cellophane” for Video of the Year might not bode well for her chances here. The two categories don’t always line up, though: DJ Snake and Lil Jon‘s “Turn Down for What” won for its direction without a Video of the Year nomination just five years ago.

We think she has a better shot at Best Choreography, where she ranks third with 5/1 odds behind front-runners BTS and Halsey for “Boy with Luv.” But she trails in fourth place for Best Visual Effects with 11/2 odds; Ariana Grande is the favorite there for her similarly otherworldly “God is a Woman” video. I, for one, think “Cellophane” would have been competitive for a win for its cinematography, but MTV didn’t nominate it there. What do you think her chances are for the three nominations she did get? Will she finally take a Moonman home after eight tries?

Be sure to make your MTV Video Music Award predictions so that music executives and top name stars can see how they’re faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced on August 26. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 VMAs taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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